RETURN TO SERVICES FOR NON-SUBSCRIBERS
HIT RELOAD TO UPDATE IF SHORT TIME SINCE LAST VISIT

BEHIND THE NEWS
PETROLEUM CHANNEL (BTNP) - BACK ISSUES
2012
Access to full text requires subscription.
P706 Thursday, 20 December 2012
CCS Conundrums - I
  • Non-Socialists Ponder CCS Strategy
  • Strong Interest for Open Bidding System
  • All Want Alternatives to Mongstad
  • Kårstø already Shelved
  • Other Gas Options would be Greenfield
  • Compatible with Expected Over-Production?
  • Svalbard Coal, Grenland Industry Easy Ways Out?
  • But Only Gas Strategically Important for Norway
P705 Monday, 17 December 2012
Clarifications
  • Parliament Processes MPE Budget
  • Non-Socialists Commit to new Petoro Financing
  • Non-Socialists to Boost Petroleum R&D
  • Minister Confirms LoVe Statement Party Related
  • Towards Majority Rule on LoVe Opening
P704 Wednesday, 12 December 2012
Not Convincing Yet
  • BP, Total in from 21st to 22nd Round
  • ExxonMobil, Chevron Out
  • In Total, One Applicant Less
  • Two Russian Companies
  • Round not a Quantum Leap in Interest
  • Final Call Depends on Awards
  • Barents Needs Pipeline
  • Also a Fiscal Incentive would be Good
P703 Wednesday, 5 December 2012
Dragon Alive
  • Iceland Awards Dreki Licenses
  • Apparently Seismic Options
  • Faroe and Valiant Operators
  • Petoro to Participate with 25%
  • Valiant License at Norwegian Border
  • Large Prospect Straddling the Border
  • Would Require Norwegian Licensing
  • Norwegian Impact Study Completed
  • Opening Decision in Spring
  • Makes Joint Field Development Possible
P702 Tuesday, 27 November 2012
Small Step Forward
  • MPE Releases LoVe Knowledge Package
  • Designed to Facilitate Formal Impact Study
  • Largely Confirms Previous Knowledge
  • No Real Obstacles for E&P in the Region
  • But No New Government Policies
  • Minister Voices "Personal Opinion":
  • Re-Opening of Part of Nordland VI Soon
  • But No Other Opening in Next Parliament Period
  • Possible Indication of New Centre Party Position
  • Conservatives, Progress, Promise High Speed
P701 Thursday, 22 November 2012
Proof of the Pudding
  • Wintershall, Statoil in Gas Sales Deal
  • Approx 1/5 Wintershall Equity Gas
  • Price Indexed to Spot Market
  • Statoil Now Sells 50% Spot-Related
  • Necessary to Stay Competitive
  • Norway Takes Market Share from Russia
  • Spot-Indexing Helps Saving European Market
  • Vital Norwegian Contribution
  • The Rest is Up to European Politicians
P700 Thursday, 15 November 2012
WEO 2012
  • World Energy Outlook 2012 Released
  • Small Changes from 2011 Edition:
  • Main Scenario: Gas Up, Nuclear/Bio Down
  • Same Trend in Climate Mitigation Scenario
  • As Before, Strong Gas Growth in All Scenarios
  • Does Not Say Oil/Gas Must Stay in Ground
  • Only Small Oil Decline in Mitigation Scenario
  • Yet, Scenario Far from Best Possible
P699 Thursday, 1 November 2012
Slow Shale
  • Statoil into Shale Gas in Germany
  • Part of Wintershall Agreement
  • Only Research Project for Now
  • Slow, "Step-Wise" Motion in Germany
  • Likely to Pick up in the Longer Run
  • Alliance May Have a Chance of Early Approval
  • Would Be Good Credential for Rest of Europe
P698 Tuesday, 30 October 2012
Friendly Fungus
  • Statoil, Wintershall in IOR Alliance
  • Wintershall/BASF Biopolymer Centrepiece
  • Could Break NCS Standstill on Advanced EOR
  • Yet, only one among Many Options
  • Improved Framework Conditions still Required
P697 Monday, 29 October 2012
Barrier Broken
  • Statoil, Wintershall Deal Well Received
  • Strong Analyst Support for Portfolio Focusing
  • Wintershall Gains Important Foothold
  • First Manned Platform Operatorship Divested
  • Unions Unhappy, but only in Principle
  • Satisfied with Agreed Terms for Employees
  • New Opening for Specialised Tail-End Producers
  • Statoil's Reservation Prices too High?
P696 Monday, 22 October 2012
Power Metrics - I
  • How Competitive is Gas in Climate Abatement?
  • Levelized Costs Insufficient Guide
  • Due to Standard Treatment of Intermittent Power
  • How to Assess Integration/Balancing Costs?
  • When not Ignored, Highly Different Approaches
  • With Low End Costs, Offshore Wind Loses to Gas
  • With Mid-Range Costs, also Onshore Wind Loses
  • Valid in Near as well as Long Term
  • Carbon Costs always Included
  • Much Uncertainty, Ongoing Discussion
  • In Addition, other Costs with Wind
P695 Wednesday, 10 October 2012
Rising Costs
  • MPE Releases Capex Rise Survey
  • Covers All Fields under Development
  • Revised Capex 14% Real above PDOs
  • But only 8% above Global Trend
  • Without Outliers, No Significant Difference
  • Global Trend Counts for some 42%
  • 20-35% May be Real Net Overruns
  • 95% of Gross Overruns from Four Fields
  • Very Good Statoil Performance
P694 Monday, 8 October 2012
False Alarm
  • National Grid Publishes UK Gas Scenarios
  • Interpreted as Blow to Norwegian Exports
  • Actually, Shows High Import Requirements
  • NCS Share Based on Supply Assessment
  • Declining Import Assumes Low NCS E&P
  • Contradicts Norwegian Policy
  • High NCS E&P Compatible with Green Scenarios
  • Outcome Depends on Norway Itself
  • Exploration, Infrastructure, and CCS
P693 Friday, 5 October 2012
Train Sidetracked
  • Snøhvit Group Cancels Capacity Process
  • Still Undecided on LNG/Pipeline
  • Statoil Says Not Sufficient Resources
  • A Convenient Explanation, Hardly Quite Real
  • Petoro Says Costs Had Grown too High
  • US LNG Exports Priced at Spot Plus
  • More LNG Planned than Market Can Absorb
  • Decision Inevitable after Gassco Initiative
  • Gassco Proceeds with Broad Barents Studies
  • Final Choice in 2-3 Years
P692 Monday, 1 October 2012
Room for Improvement
  • Conservatives Release Draft Platform
  • Still Friendly to the Petroleum Industry
  • Lacks Clarity about LoVe Opening
  • Does not Reflect any Real Doubts
  • Will Probably Come in Place in the End
  • Room also for other Improvements
  • Reasonable Freedom of Action on Climate Policy
  • Poor on Forest Strategies
  • EU Membership Shelved for Now
P691 Tuesday, 18 September 2012
Still on the Green Side
  • Christians Still Rather Green
  • Some Moderation Since 2009
  • Draft Platform Only, May Change
P690 Wednesday, 12 September 2012
Going Growth
  • Centre Party Presents Draft Election Platform
  • Moderates Climate Ideology
  • Open Disagreement about Access to Acreage
  • Erases other Adverse Petroleum Policy Points
  • No Mention of Gas Power and CCS
  • Brushed-Up Policy about Forestry for Climate
P689 Monday, 10 September 2012
APA 2012
  • 47 Companies Apply in APA 2012
  • All Majors Apply, First Time Since 2002
  • Largest Round Ever in Terms of Blocks Offered
P688 Saturday, 8 September 2012
Petoro's Duties
  • Petroleum Act Defines Petoro's Role
  • Not a Political Instrument
  • Own Performance always Commercial
  • Maximize Value for Entire Portfolio
  • Within same Limits as all Others
  • Must also Understand Broad Social Interest
  • Ministry to Be Warned in Case of Conflict
  • Could Receive Instruction from Ministry
  • Mostly a Safety Valve, but Reflects a Reality
  • Also a Protection against Political Pressure
P687 Friday, 7 September 2012
Petoro Opens for Large Pipeline
  • 42" Pipeline Included in Petoro's Options
  • Does not Mention 32"
  • Underlines Interests of SDFI Portfolio
  • Next License Crossroads 1 November
  • Could End with Alignment to Gassco Process
P686 Friday, 24 August 2012
Gassco Opens New Process
  • Gassco Starts Barents Area Studies
  • Recommends Large Pipeline
  • Formal Submission under Petroleum Act
  • Aims at Inviting more Investors
  • Pipeline Beats LNG also with Market Premium
P685 Wednesday, 22 August 2012
Passing the Buck - II
  • Main Trade Union Withdrew
  • Safety Authority Dissented
  • Not a Roadmap for Further Action
  • What Was the Mandate, Really?
  • A 1000 Billion Pie in the Sky
  • Other Proposals
P684 Wednesday, 22 August 2012
Passing the Buck - I
  • Rig Commission Submits Report
  • Highlights Personnel, Upgrade Costs
  • Good Description of Well-Known Challenges
  • Mostly another Stop-Over for Difficult Issues
  • Now the Buck Has Been Passed, Again
P683 Wednesday, 15 August 2012
Internalizing the Future
  • How Does the License Deal with Broader Interests?
  • Unacceptable Lack of Clarity
  • Clarity Needed Before Decision Gates are Passed
  • Government May Have to Shift Leadership to Gassco
  • Ambiguity a Play for Europe?
P682 Wednesday, 15 August 2012
Snøhvit Status
  • Statoil Manager Says Statoil Favours LNG
  • Partners Surprised
  • Far from Ready for Decision
  • Non-Norwegians Appear Aligned
  • Indicate Interest for Pipeline
  • Petoro Says Yes/No to LNG Comes First
  • Yet, all Options Still Open
  • NHO Calls for Political Initiative for Pipeline
P681 Monday, 30 July 2012
UK Gas Policy Firmed up
  • UK Government Firms up Gas Policy
  • Key Fuel also Beyond 2030
  • Even Longer with CCS
  • Not for Balancing Only
  • Tax Cut for Large Gas Fields in Shallow Water
  • Chancellor Envisages UK as Gas Hub
  • Underlines Norwegian Connection
P680 Thursday, 26 July 2012
Capacity Markets - II
  • Also Germany Considers Capacity Market
  • Would Encourage Gas Power Investment
  • Will Include Storage, Demand Side
  • EU Wants Coordinated System
  • But Can It Be Done without Delays?
  • EU Top Says Piped Gas from Norway Best
P679 Thursday, 26 July 2012
Capacity Markets - I
  • Why Capacity Support is Needed
  • Many Different Support Systems
  • Existing Systems also in Europe
  • The UK Capacity Market Revisited
P678 Monday, 23 July 2012
European Headaches - II
  • From Coal to Gas in the US
  • From Gas to Coal in Europe
  • Already Impact on Emissions
  • Europe Must Secure more Gas Power
P677 Monday, 23 July 2012
European Headaches - I
  • High Power Prices Scare German Politicians
  • Worries about European Deindustrialization
  • Fourth EU 20%-Target Suggested
  • Harder to Balance Intermittent Power
  • Increasing Risk of Blackouts
  • New German Energy Plan in 2013
P676 Monday, 16 July 2012
Time for Reform - II
  • Union Suggests Revised Playing Field
  • Towards more Mature Relationships?
P675 Wednesday, 11 July 2012
Time for Reform - I
  • Offshore Conflict to Compulsory Arbitration
  • Necessary, but Unfortunate for Everybody
  • Parties Could Hardly Acted Differently
  • History Casts Long Shadows
P674 Monday, 9 July 2012
End of Peak Oil
  • Study: Strong Oil Supply Growth
  • May Reach 111 mbd by 2020
  • No Peak Oil in Horizon
  • Price Collapse Possible
  • Market Cyclical as before
P673 Thursday, 5 July 2012
The Risk Factor
  • Capacity Use in Large Pipeline
  • Too Risky with Spare Capacity?
  • But Surprisingly Low Downside
  • 42" Justified even with High Risk Aversion
  • Confirms Wait Option for Train 2 Decision
P672 Sunday, 1 July 2012
The Stranding Period
  • How Large Reserves Available?
  • When Will there Be Free LNG Capacity?
P671 Thursday, 28 June 2012
Going North
  • 22nd Round Offers Out
  • Same 86 Blocks as in March Proposal
  • Four Blocks Inside Svalbard Box
  • Minister: We Are Moving North
  • Envisages E&P up to Arctic Ocean
  • Meets with Top International Leaders
  • Announces Arctic Research Centre
P670 Tuesday, 26 June 2012
Delay, but what next?
  • Unspecified Delay of Melkøya Decision
  • Disagreement among Licensees
  • All Options Limited to Known Reserves
  • Statoil Says Larger Pipeline is "Outside Snøhvit"
  • Time for New Mandate for Gassco?
P669 Tuesday, 26 June 2012
Telling Silence
  • Liberals List 20 Political Priorities
  • Nothing about Petroleum Policy
  • No Ultimate Demands for new Government
  • Sees Advantages with Minority Government
  • Good News for LoVe E&P
  • New Success for "Solberg Doctrine"
P668 Wednesday, 20 June 2012
Barents Dugnad
  • Minister Insists on Social Profitability
  • How Big Distance to Commercial Profitability?
  • How Should and Could the Distance Be Covered?
  • May Require "Dugnad" with Many Parties
  • Statoil Hints about Other Investors
  • Fundamentally, the State's Responsibility
  • But Smarter for Snøhvit Group to Cooperate
P667 Tuesday, 19 June 2012
Historic Opportunity
  • Spare Gas Transport Capacity Key to Barents Sea
  • Existing Volumes Justify Basic Investment
  • In Addition, Record-High Exploration Interest
  • Combination Good for Investment in Spare Capacity
  • Pipeline Decision not Needed until 2016
  • Petoro Says LNG Decision Could be Delayed
  • Could Be Due to Many Factors
  • Good for Wait Options Anyway
P666 Wednesday, 9 May 2012
Statoil's Rigs - II
  • Maritime Contractors Worried about Ownership
  • Early Hints that Statoil Could be Rig Owner
  • Later Transferred to License Groups
  • Yet, only Normal Long-Term Contracts Until Now
  • Ownership Option Now Limited to New Jack-Ups
  • Negotiating Chip - or What?
P665 Monday, 7 May 2012
Statoil's Rigs - I
  • Statoil Awards Long-Term Rig Hire Contract to Aker
  • Category B Specially Designed for Intervention
  • Aker Seems to be the Main Innovating Party
  • Procedures Apparently Different for D and J Rigs
  • What Kind of Rig-Owner Participation in Innovation?
P664 Thursday, 19 April 2012
Taxing Dragons
  • Icelandic Tax System Improved
  • But Far from Good Enough
  • Fields Must Have Very High Profitability
  • Loses More Projects than Norwegian System
  • Unfortunate Rule about Capping Rental Payments
P663 Monday, 16 April 2012
Will the Dragon Fly?
  • Active Jan Mayen Ridge Petroleum System
  • Three Groups Bid in 2nd Icelandic Round
  • Start with Seismic Programs Only?
  • Necessary to Join Forces?
  • Will Petoro Participate?
P662 Monday, 9 April 2012
Slower in Norwegian Sea
  • Few Potential Offers in Norwegian Sea
  • Aasta Hansteen Carpet Growing
  • Some New Sub-Basalt Blocks
  • But BG Drops License
  • ExxonMobil, Chevron Persist
P661 Saturday, 7 April 2012
Barents Take-Off
  • Record-High Barents Offer Considered
  • Barents Takes 80% of Frontier Attention
  • Exploration Push towards Borders of Open Area
  • Hottest Zone around Skrugard/Havis
  • Hoop Trail Goes into Svalbard Box
  • Exploration Knocking on Door to Barents SE
P660 Tuesday, 3 April 2012
New UK Dash for Gas
  • UK Starts New "Dash for Gas"
  • Facilitated by New Electricity Market Reform
  • Minister: Gas with CCS is Destination Fuel
  • More Gas Imports in 2030 than Today
  • Even without CCS, 2050 Gas Use 60% of 2007
  • New Gas without CCS "Grandfathered" until 2045
  • Capacity Market to Compensate for Swing Production
  • Selective Subsidies for Renewables to be Phased Out
  • Replaced with Technology Neutral Feed-In Tariffs
  • New CCS Delivery Programme
  • Now also the Nuclear Industry Needs Subsidies
P659 Monday, 19 March 2012
Roadmap's Playing Field
  • EP Majority: Milestones for Renewables
  • Rejected by the UK
  • Demands Level Playing Field
  • Includes CCS, Nuclear, Renewables
  • UK Opens up for Shale Gas Production
  • Seen as Contribution to Security of Supply
  • Gives Good Reason for Avoiding Milestones
  • Roadmap Biased in Favour of Renewables
  • Even in Alleged Technology-Neutral Scenarios
  • Under-Estimate the Future Role of Gas
  • Poland Opposes New Emission Milestones
  • Statoil Agrees to "Market Price" in E.ON Contracts
P658 Thursday, 23 February 2012
Gas in Roadmap
  • EU Roadmap Confirms Role of Gas
  • Imports 68-98% of 2010 Level in 2050
  • Range of all Decarbonisation Scenarios
  • All except Outlier Scenario above 84%
  • Gas Penetration Highly Price Sensitive
  • Model's Price Assumptions Disfavour Gas
  • Lower Gas Price Will Increase Demand
  • Norwegian Gas Must Stay Competitive
  • Lower Resource Rent Must be Expected
  • Can Tax System Stay the Same for Oil and Gas?
P657 Monday, 20 February 2012
Barentspipe - III
  • LNG Trade Will Equalize Prices
  • But also Cause a Volatile Market in Europe
  • Staying Competitive Most Important
  • Pipeline Best for Long Term Resilience
  • Minor Gains from Destination Flexibility only
  • Quickly Cancelled by Pipeline's Economy of Scale
P656 Monday, 20 February 2012
Barentspipe - II
  • Northern Industry Group Favours Train II
  • Says Market Flexibility Is Important
  • Statoil, Minister Will Consider Same Point
  • Huge Price Differences USA/Europe/Far East
  • But Due to Extraordinary Circumstances
  • More LNG Will Act as Market Equalizer
P655 Tuesday, 7 February 2012
Elephant in a Glass Shop - III
  • Government May Veto EU's HSE Regulation
  • All Industry, Trade Unions, Reject Proposal
  • Opposition also from the UK, other EU Countries
  • Veritas Invalidates Commission's Risk Assessments
  • Costs much Higher than Alleged Risk Reduction
  • Good and Bad Amendments in Draft Council Version
  • Tripartite Consultations Briefly Included in Annex
  • Why is the Commission so Insistent on a Regulation?
  • Why Does Bellona Side with the Commission?
  • A Back Door Into Resource Management?
P654 Tuesday, 31 January 2012
Barentspipe - I
  • Gassco Submits Gas Infrastructure Study
  • "Barentspipe" Could be Operational by 2020
  • Five Years Later in Case of LNG Train II
  • Statoil, Snøhvit Group Still Undecided
  • What Resource Base Should We Plan for?
  • How much is already Available?
P653 Monday, 16 January 2012
Elephant in a Glass Shop - II
  • What Happened to the Trade Unions?
  • Remembered by EU Parliament
  • Ignored by Commission
P652 Monday, 9 January 2012
Elephant in a Glass Shop - I
  • Commission Proposes HSE Regulation
  • Praises UK/Norwegian System
  • Copies Goal Setting Approach
  • But No Tripartite Cooperation
  • In Details, some Good, some Bad, much Uncertain
  • Enforcement Would Disrupt National Systems
  • In Current Shape Unacceptable for Norway/UK
P651 Monday, 2 January 2012
Agenda Specified
  • Liberals Agree to 21 of 27 Con/Progress Motions
  • Opposition United on Tax, Diversity, Petoro, Preparedness
  • Also about many IOR Related Proposals
  • All Motions Defeated by Red-Green Majority

RETURN TO SERVICES FOR NON-SUBSCRIBERS
HIT RELOAD TO UPDATE IF SHORT TIME SINCE LAST VISIT