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BEHIND THE NEWS
NORWEGIAN POLITICS (BTNN) - BACK ISSUES
2011
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N366 Tuesday, 4 October 2011
Outlook for 2013
  • Long-Term Trends Only Give Non-Socialist Majority
  • Hard to See Red-Green Majority in 2013
  • Adding Christians May not even Help
  • Conservative/Progress Government in Base Case
  • Assumes 22/7 Effects have Evaporated
  • Holds Even after Red-Green Break-Up
  • Non-Socialist Unity Helps Progress, Liberals, Christians
  • Too Much Would Defeat the Purpose
  • Conservatives Must Not Lose Growth Credibility
  • Labour Faster Back if they Do
  • But then Probably alone in Government
  • Under some Assumptions with Centre, Christians
  • No Scenario Allows New Red-Green Government
N365 Friday, 30 September 2011
Risks and Upsides
  • Most of the Conservatives' Huge Gain at Risk
  • Optimal Strategy Choice Means Risk Mitigation is Hard
  • Risk Corresponds to Progress, Labour Upside
  • Socialist Left Party in Green Dilemma
  • Its Best Chance Probably Being More Red, Less Green
  • Dissolving the Government Logical Choice
  • That Doesn't Mean They Will Do so
  • Progress Party has itself the Keys to Recovery
  • Christians on Current Course to 4% Threshold
  • Can Rescue itself by Clear Non-Socialist Commitment
  • Centre Party Upside to Follow Borten Moe
N364 Friday, 23 September 2011
Swings to Growth and Right
  • Progress Party Biggest Loser
  • But Conservatives Won more
  • Socialist Left Party at All-Time Low
  • Red-Green Government Would have been Lost
  • In Total, Small Swing to the Right
  • Larger Swing from Green to Growth
  • Both Swings Fit Long Term Trends
  • Voters More Consistent over Time than Parties
  • Separating Long Term and Transient Trends
N363 Wednesday, 21 September 2011
The Final 22/7 Effect
  • Sympathy Effect Evaporated
  • Tolerance Effect Persisted
  • Favoured Labour, Liberals, Hurt Progress Party
  • Contradictory Causes for Socialists' Losses
N362 Monday, 15 August 2011
Election after 22/7
  • Election Campaign Officially Started
  • Very Difficult for all Parties
  • Labour's Gain Withering Slowly
  • Gain Smaller for Local Election
  • Hard to Make Room for other Issues
  • Security, Immigration Issues with own Momentum
  • Progress Party in Identity Crisis
  • Could Use Opportunity to Reinvent Itself, Needs Time
  • Immigration, Integration Could Be a Wild Card
N361 Friday, 12 August 2011
Preparedness after 22/7
  • The Police's Troublesome Journey to Ut°ya
  • Why no Helicopters were available
  • Airborne Support Likely to be Improved
  • Questions Raised about Command, Co-Ordination
  • High Official Risk Aversion May Have Cost Lives
N360 Thursday, 11 August 2011
Punishment after 22/7
  • Harder Punishment for Heinous Crimes?
N359 Tuesday, 9 August 2011
Openness after 22/7
  • How Should Free Speech be Delimited?
  • More Surveillance and Eavesdropping?
  • Open Courts as Rostrums for Criminals?<
  • Government to Appoint 22/7 Commission
N358 Sunday, 7 August 2011
The Response to 22/7
  • Crowds of Citizens Respond with Roses
  • Immigrant Community Shares Grief, Rejects Hate
  • Confirms Full Loyalty to Norway's Basic Values
  • PM: More Democracy, Openness, Humanism
  • Values Define the "We", Respect for Other Differences
  • Appreciation of Leadership Shown in Opinion Surveys
N357 Tuesday, 2 August 2011
The Ideology of 22/7
  • Crazy, Criminal, or Extremist?
  • The Crucial Importance of Ideas
  • Good Ideas are Knowledge Products
  • Not Dependent on Particular Cultures
  • Perpetrator Reveals his Wrong Choices
  • Bad Premises Can Lead to Disaster
N356 Wednesday, 12 January 2011
Bumble Bee
  • Will the Red-Green Government Survive 2011?
  • PR Guru Says No
  • Gamblers Say Yes
  • Depends on Labour's and PM's Reality Perception
  • Could Be Influenced by New Stories from Labour Icons
  • Say OK for Labour to Risk Coalition for Own Policies
  • Could Make Going Alone more Prudent, Less Tactical
  • Key is to Stop Seeing Voters as Stupid and Selfish

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