BEHIND THE
NEWS
PETROLEUM CHANNEL (BTNP) - BACK ISSUES
2010 |
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P566 |
Tuesday, 24 August 2010
Non-Renewable Politicians |
- Minister Says Statoil Important for Renewables
- Getting Out "Not the Right Road"
- Refers to By-Laws Amendment Last Year
- Centre Party, Socialist Left Party Ready to Use Ownership Power
- Labour: Statoil Must Make Its Own Commercial Decisions
- Efforts to Force Statoil Will Not Succeed
- Possible Solution to Use Statkraft Only
- Requires Re-Assessment of Statkraft's Position and Role
- Some Think "Making" Renewables Profitable is Solution
- But More Subsidies Unlikely to Convince Statoil
- Bellona: Lund Underwrites Death Sentence
- Lund: Oil & Gas Vital for Foreseeable Future
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P565 |
Monday, 23 August 2010
Statoil the Renewable |
- Helge Lund Says Statoil May Drop Renewables
- Considers Focus at Oil & Gas only
- Renewables Unprofitable
- Statement Fine Example of True CSR
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P564 |
Monday, 23 August 2010
Gas Paradigms Changing |
- Bergens Tidende Says Anti-Gas Power Policy has Failed
- Questions Wisdom of Offshore Electrification
- Indicates National CO2 Cap Should be Relaxed
- Many Economists Recommend Return to Gas Power
- Trade Union for Energy & Industry Demands Gas Power
- CCS an Advantage, but Should not Be a Requirement
- Debate Triggered by Decision on Hardanger Power Line
- Government Agrees to Study Sea Cables
- Progress Party Demands Gas Power Included in Study
- New Gas Power Paradigm Could be Emerging
- Offshore Electrification Rapidly Losing Support
- But Government Caught in Its Own Symbol Policy
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P563 |
Monday, 9 August 2010
The Labour Battles |
- VG: Labour Ready to Drop Impact Study
- Convinced Coalition Would Break Up
- Searching for Alternative Acceptable to E&P Supporters
- But Unlikely that Decision Has Been Taken
- VG Probably Used by Labour's Left
- Centre Leader: Coalition Will Survive any LoVe Decision
- Why Would She Reduce Labour's Risk Perception?
- Protecting the Coalition more Important than LoVe for Centre Party
- May Be Effort to Contain Damage to Red-Green Relations
- May also Be Part of Attempt to Cash in Expected Victory<
- Also Possible that She Knows Something Others Do Not
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P562 |
Sunday, 1 August 2010
Trial Balloon |
- Labour Top Suggests LoVe Fix
- Collect Knowledge, but not in Impact Study
- Conservatives: Disappointed
- Progress Party: Cowardly
- Probably Trial Balloon on behalf of PM
- Knowledge Collection Cover for Evasive Tactics
- If Confirmed, Never Progress under Red-Green Rule
- Trade Union Leader Supports Impact Study
- Indicates no Decision Has Been Taken
- Labour Has Available a Much Better Strategy
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P561 |
Monday, 19 July 2010
Unifying the Troops |
- Oil Minister Indicates No to LoVe
- "Not Right to Do Anything Now"
- Speculations about Government's Attitude
- Stoltenberg: Not Dramatic
- Probably Part of Centre Party Troop Unification
- Navarsete and Riis-Johansen as "Good Cop, Bad Cop"?
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P560 |
Monday, 5 July 2010
Small Field Problem |
- New OG21 Strategy Plan
- No Technology Push from Small Fields
- Several Mitigation Tools Suggested
- Large Potential in Even Smaller Fields
- New Acreage Requires New Technology
- Strategy Calls for Strong Increase in R&D Funding
- Careful Hints about Fiscal Improvements
- More Frontier Perspectives Needed
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P559 |
Thursday, 1 July 2010
240,000 People |
- Statistics Norway: 206,000 Petroleum Jobs
- Adding Exports Takes Number to 240,000
- Cluster Employment Approaching 150,000
- Broadly Consistent with Earlier Assessments
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P558 |
Wednesday, 30 June 2010
21% without Resource Rent |
- 21% of Onshore GDP without Resource Rent
- Also Cluster Measure above 20%
- In Addition, 6.7% of "Oil Money" Spending
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P557 |
Wednesday, 30 June 2010
29% of GNP |
- Statistics Norway Reports Industrial Value Creation
- Menon Reports Exports from Suppliers
- Full Value Creation from Petroleum 29% of GNP<
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P556 |
Tuesday, 29 June 2010
The Complacency Cycle |
- What is the Validity of Risk Assessments?
- Complacency Apparently among Causes for BP Accident
- Does Such Human Error Enter Risk Assessments?
- Inverse Risk Aversion Before/After Accident
- Risk Should Be Corrected for Cyclical Complacency
- Exaggerated Risk Aversion Could Increase other Risks
- Complacency Cycle in Nuclear Industry as well?
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P555 |
Monday, 28 June 2010
Can't Happen Here? - III |
- Performance-Based Supervision Facilitates Innovation
- Incentivizes Companies by Allocating Proper Responsibility<
- Three-Party Cooperation Reduces Risk Compared to US
- Trade Unions, PSA Play Crucial Roles
- Concerns about Weaker Employee Ties
- OLF Integrity Forum Promotes Best Practise
- Facilitates Peer Control
- PSA Gets Insight, Foundation for Benchmarking
- Systems Embedded in Social Fabric, Cluster Culture
- US Barriers: Lack of Trade Unions, Cooperation Culture
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P554 |
Friday, 25 June 2010
Can't Happen Here? - II |
- PSA Says Most New US Proposals Implemented in Norway
- USOCS Spills Per Unit of Oil Production 69% Above NCS
- Not Including Deepwater Horizon
- 470% Corrected for NCS Outlier
- US Authorities Look to Norway
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P553 |
Thursday, 24 June 2010
Can't Happen Here? - I |
- Could GoM Accident Have Happened Here?<
- Veritas Report Finds Much Lower Risk in Norway/UK
- Blowouts 9 Times More Frequent in the GoM
- All GoM Events Impossible or Less Likely in Norway
- Major Improvements Due to Technology
- Risk to Fish Reduced by 75% from Traditional Models
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P552 |
Monday, 21 June 2010
From Buttons to Gags? |
- Industry Minister Plans New Gags
- Suggests New Rules for State Enterprises
- Wants Low Profile on Political Issues
- Aimed at Statoil and LoVe
- Negative Effects for Democracy
- Oil Companies Reluctant to Participate anyway
- Imbalance already Huge
- Hostility not Representative of Public Opinion
- New Reminder that Industry Must Make itself Better Heard
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P551 |
Monday, 14 June 2010
Once in 100,000 Years - II |
- Deepwater Horizon Only Second Huge Exploration Spill Ever
- Event Probability Consistent with Veritas Numbers
- Doesn't Change Risk Assessment from Management Plan
- "100,000 Years" Refers to Risk for Lost Fish in Plan Area Only
- Public Perception a Different Story
- Inverse Risk Aversion before/after an Accident
- One Worst-Case Spill World-Wide per 15 Years Possible in Future
- Adding Public Reactions, even more Important to Improve Safety
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P550 |
Tuesday, 25 May 2010
Barents East III |
- Structures Identified from Russian Seismics
- Various Structure Maps Circulating
- Low and Variable Seismic Density
- Least Uncertainty about Prospects towards the East
- Some of these on Norwegian Side or Straddling
- Other Less Known Structures on Norwegian Side
- Opportunities Everywhere
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P549 |
Thursday, 20 May 2010
Barents East II |
- Little Known about Resources in Formerly Disputed Area
- Russians Believe in Huge Resources
- Other Estimates More Conservative
- Assessments Mostly Based on Russian Primary Data
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P548 |
Tuesday, 18 May 2010
Barents East I |
- Norway, Russia Agree to Split Contested Area
- Agreement in Principle only
- Published Border Line Described as "Illustration"
- Strong Political Commitments
- Ratification Possible within a Year
- MPE Says E&P Preparations Will Start Soon
- Presentation for Parliament Early Next Year
- Socialists May Try Barents East as Trade-Off for LoVe
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P547 |
Tuesday, 11 May 2010
Second Anyway Round |
- VG: New LoVe Easy Fix Considered
- No Impact Study, but Same Studies with Different Name
- Results Can Be Used in Later Impact Study Anyway
- "Cut and Paste" Operation Possible in Less Than 6 Months
- Unlikely to Succeed, since Conflict Simply Will Transform
- Counter-Move: Inflated Study Program in Next Management Plan
- Small Upside, Downside at least Two Years of Additional Delay
- Easy Fixes Usually Too Easy to Be True
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P546 |
Tuesday, 11 May 2010
Heritage for E&P? |
- Proposal to Combine Lofoten Heritage Plan with E&P
- Plan Area Appears to avoid most NPD Prospects
- But NPD Prospects May not Be Exhaustive
- Buffer Zones, Onshore Restrictions Will Apply
- The Social Cost of Political Compromise
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P545 |
Friday, 7 May 2010
Unsurprising Surprise |
- Mongstad CCS Decision Delayed to 2014
- Media, Opposition Feign Surprise
- Obvious since Statoil's Master Plan
- Government Followed Parliament's Instructions
- Ill-Advised Threat about Non-Confidence
- Will Appear as Attack from wrong Direction
- Mistake Was Getting In, not Getting Out
- Entire CCS Strategy Must Be Reconsidered
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P544 |
Thursday, 22 April 2010
Once in 100,000 Years - I |
- Agencies Submit Reports for Management Plan
- Very Low Risk for Fish
- Even Worst Cases are not Scary
- 5-10% of Fish Year Class Lost Once in 100,000 Years
- Equal to 17 Recorded Human Histories
- No Damage Irreversible
- Settles Dispute between Agencies
- Black Day, Green Boss Admitted
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P543 |
Thursday, 15 April 2010
Quiet System Change |
- ExxonMobil Sells Gassled Interest
- New Owners Are Infrastructure Funds
- Cater i. a. to Pension Funds
- Sale Could Break Perceived Political Barrier
- Disagreement between Petoro and Gassco
- Change Probably Mostly Good
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P542 |
Monday, 29 March 2010
Astronauts without Spaceship |
- Statoil, State Renegotiate Moon Landing
- 2014 Start-Up Date Dropped by Both
- Minister Says Needed Time Must Be Used
- Test Centre Mongstad Further Delayed
- Some MPs Forget about Decision to Wait for TCM
- Socialist Left Party Ready to Take Decision in Thin Air
- "Astronauts Wanting to Land without Technology"
- First Full-Scale Capture Delayed from 2009 to 2018/19
- Fundamentally Faulty Political Strategy to Blame
- Socialists, Bellona Defeated their Own Purpose
- Not too Late To Do it Better
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P541 |
Monday, 29 March 2010
High Travel Expenses |
- New Kårstø CCS Study
- CCS Price Tag NOK 10-12 Bn
- 23-27 Bn Including Full Integration
- Earliest Full-Scale Start-Up in 2018
- Additional Power Plant Avoided
- Spark Spread Problem Avoided
- But Power Export Changes to Import
- Local Emission Reduction 2.3 Mill Tonnes/Year
- Global Emissions May Increase almost As Much
- How Should Unit Costs Be Calculated?
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P540 |
Thursday, 18 March 2010
Plan B |
- A Plan B to Meet the Shale Challenge?
- Global Investment Will Move from Offshore to Onshore
- Increased Competition between Gas Producers
- Long Term Contracts May Disappear
- NCS Competitive Advantages Must be Used
- Can We Cross New Offshore Frontiers in Time?
- Interesting Market for Many Suppliers
- But Challenge for Maritime Sector
- Plan B is really an Accelerated Plan A
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P539 |
Wednesday, 17 March 2010
Shale Politics |
- Shale Gas Revolution Invalidates "Peak Oil & Gas"
- Will Increase Trust in Long Time Horizon for Oil & Gas
- Will Change Approach to Security of Supply
- Gas Likely to Emerge as Preferred Climate Solution, but how fast?
- US, European Climate Commitments Can Be Met with Gas alone
- Interest in Gas for Vehicle Fuel Likely to Increase
- Can Shale Gas "Create Its Own Market"?
- Possible if Industry Can Convince Politicians
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P538 |
Friday, 12 March 2010
Shale Future |
- ExxonMobil, other Majors, Moving into Shale Gas
- Also in Europe, China, South Africa
- Driven by Oil Resource Nationalism
- Promises more Technology Development
- Opportunities with Rigs, Seismics, Reservoir, ICT
- Likely to Add Huge Global Resources
- A European Shale Industry in 10-20 Years?
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P537 |
Wednesday, 10 March 2010
Shale Shelling |
- Shale Gas Puts Shtokman on Hold
- Could Be for a Long Time
- Delays also for Nabucco Gas
- New Large Shale Discovery in Quebec
- Expectations of North American Self-Sufficiency
- Pressure on LNG and other Gas Markets
- Gazprom Already Selling some Gas at Spot Prices
- Conventional Producers Must Rethink
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P536 |
Tuesday, 2 February 2010
Giske's Self-Trap |
- Government, Aker Amend Partnership Deal
- Veto Right for Related Party Transactions
- Information Channel Opened to Minister
- Poor Clarity about Limitations
- Minister Risks Constitutional Responsibility
- What Happens after Next Media Storm?
- New Aker Strategy May Keep Trap from Closing
- General State Activism Fortunately Forgotten
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P535 |
Wednesday, 27 January 2010
Coming Home? |
- Conservatives Refuse to Intervene against Oil Sands
- Indicate Preference for Non-Selective Mitigation
- Good Step towards Ideologically Consistent Climate Policy
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P534 |
Wednesday, 27 January 2010
Blowing in the Wind - or Not |
- 20% Load Factor for Wind Power in Germany, UK
- No Wind Energy Produced during UK Cold Spell
- Wind Power Requires Full Back-Up
- Wind Mostly Poor Fossil Power Clean-Up Attempt
- Large Efficiency Losses in Main System
- May Cancel Saved Emissions
- Land Use Change, Life Cycle Energy Use in Addition
- Wind Just as Challenged as Biofuels, Fossils
- All Easy Solutions Gone
- CCS Beats Wind as Mitigation Technology
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P533 |
Monday, 25 January 2010
Not Time for Sanctions |
- NPD Releases NCS Report 2009
- Criticizes Companies for Lacking IOR Investment
- Could Have Consequences for License Awards
- Reasons for Behaviour Poorly Understood
- Causes Must Be Clarified before Decisions on Mitigation
- Valid also for Field Development Delays
- Difference Commercial/Social Profitability?
- Casts Doubts on MoF Tax Neutrality Hypothesis
- Back to Materiality and Returns to Intangibles
- Other Market Failures?
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P532 |
Monday, 18 January 2010
Mixed Opinions |
- 73% Support Impact Study for LoVe
- 55% Believe in Co-Existence
- 86% Have Good Impression of Industry
- 75% Believe Industry is Innovative
- 71% Know It is a World Leader
- 57% Believe Safety is Better than Onshore
- 57% Believe in NCS Oil & Gas for More than 50 Years
- Lower Scores from Women and Young People
- Highest Confidence in Oil Industry on Value Creation
- Lowest Confidence in Greens
- People Identify Three Main Clusters
- Top Score for Oil & Gas, Surprisingly Low for Shipping
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P531 |
Wednesday, 13 January 2010
Museum Lofoten? |
- Ministry Speeds Up Lofoten World Heritage Process
- Indicates It Will Lean on Locals
- Locals Want to Know More
- Minister Says Heritage List Incompatible with E&P
- Clearly Incompatible with a Lot More
- Locals Want it to Be Compatible with Social Advancement
- Suggest Small Heritage Area that would not Stop E&P
- Appears also Better Fit to Purpose
- Minister Insists on Maximum Coverage, also Offshore
- Must Be Designed to Stop E&P
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P530 |
Monday, 4 January 2010
The News We Want in 2010 |
- Suggestions for an Agenda for the New Year
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P529 |
Friday, 1 January 2010
Climategate III |
- Long List of Accusations from Critics
- Most External Defenders Agree to Wrongdoing
- But Deny It Has Influenced the Science
- Claim Major Conclusions Not Dependent on Group
- Is that Possible?
- UK Met Office to Spend Three Years to Verify CRU Data
- Universities Investigate Mailers
- Why Didn't Insiders React Earlier?
- Why Doesn't the IPCC Admit to Anything Wrong?
- External Defenders' View Cannot Be Supported
- Either Mailers are Clean, or at least Some Science is Faulty
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P528 |
Friday, 1 January, 2010
Climategate II |
- Source May be Whistle-Blower
- Volume Probably Prepared Internally
- Could Have Been Openly Posted by Mistake
- Some Suspect Chinese Intelligence
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