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BEHIND THE NEWS PETROLEUM CHANNEL (BTNP) - BACK ISSUES 2010
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P586	Thursday, 30 December 2010 The Øksnes Demands	Preparedness, Development Fund Most Important Mandatory Landing Difficult Good Solutions Can Be Found for All Points Requires an Upgraded Impact Study Process
P585	Wednesday, 22 December 2010 Fishermen Go for Control	Local Fishermen Present Demands for LoVe E&P If Taken Seriously, Will Support Impact Study Tough Demands, but Good Foundation for Negotiations Regional, National Fishermen's Bodies May Follow Logic is Taking Control of the Process Tired of Black/White Arguments Important for Fishermen Not to Be By-Passed Initiative Will Bring Opening Decision Closer But on Stricter Terms; More Important to Fishermen Time/Terms Asymmetry Means Common Interests Now
P584	Tuesday, 21 December 2010 Encouraging IOR - V	Mixed Reception of Regulatory Proposals None Likely to Be Implemented as Proposed But Commission's Intentions Will Be Heard
P583	Monday, 20 December 2010 Invalid Wait Option	Vista Claims "Wait Option Value" for LoVe Opening Incorrect Use of Real-Option Theory Unjustified Use of NPD Scenarios No Wait Option from Resource Uncertainty Gain from Partial Opening also a Fallacy Other Conditional Knowledge Can't Make a Difference NPV Losses Will Always Dominate In Addition, Other Large Delay Costs
P582	Wednesday, 15 December 2010 Sugar-Coating and Evasions	LoVe "Probably Profitable" Understatement of the Year Vista Devalues Its Own Good Work Impression Further Skewed in MoE Press Release Stand-Alone LoVe Analysis Far from Sufficient Risk and Gain to Knowledge Capital Not Discussed Infrastructure and Market Related Value Evaded Reduced Tanker Risk Only Briefly Mentioned
P581	Thursday, 9 December 2010 Benefits to Costs 100:1	First Socio-Economic LoVe Analysis Risk to Fisheries and Tourism 0.5% of Oil & Gas Value Risk to Non-Market Values Hardly Much Larger High Socio-Economic Value Extremely Robust Benefits to Costs Ratio 100:1
P580	Monday, 6 December 2010 Modest Lessons	Not Much for Norway to Learn from Macondo Most Improvement Processes Home-Driven Compliance More Important than New Rules Complacency the Demon We Always Must Fight LoVe Underlines the Need to Close Technology Gaps
P579	Monday, 6 December 2010 Worst Case not Worse	Task Force Rejects Macondo as LoVe Worst Case Majority Sees No Reason to Make Worst Case Worse Green Agencies Dissent, Cannot Say How Much Worse More Oil Stranding from New Model Locations in Worst Case Due to Location Changes, Not Macondo Gives Scary Impression New Mitigation Methods Would Downscale Worst Case
P578	Wednesday, 1 December 2010 Encouraging IOR - IV	Mixed Response in Hearing Process OLF, Oil Companies Want New Tax Discussion Industry Rejects New Voting Rules
P577	Friday, 19 November 2010 A Golden Age for Gas	WEO 2010: Fossils Still Dominant in 2035 and Beyond Suggests Golden Age for Gas Gas Grows Even in Climate Activist "450 Scenario" But 450 Scenario Admitted to Be Close to Unreachable Even Harder with Realistic Modelling of Renewables Better 450 Scenario Required More Gas Plus Forest Uptake Will Do the Job
P576	Monday, 15 November 2010 The Economy of Decline	Statistics Norway Assesses Effects of Falling Production Confirms Norway Doesn't Suffer from Dutch Disease Fund Will Continue to Sustain Public Sector Suppliers Expected to Restructure Labour and Capital Used in Other Sectors Human Capital as always the Crucial Factor But Decline in the Most Productive Sector Will Reduce Growth "Shock" from Faster Decline "Can Be Handled" Report Likely to Under-Estimate Productivity Loss Classical Macro Modelling Doesn't Capture Cluster Effects Economy's Flexibility Safety Net for Resource Depletion
P575	Monday, 1 November 2010 Encouraging IOR - III	Åm Commission Worried about High Costs Rig Upgrading Costs Still a Problem Wants Joint Effort for Cost Reductions Suggests EU/EEA Standardization Calls for More Cost/Benefit Analysis for HSE Long History of Cost Discussions
P574	Wednesday, 20 October 2010 Nuisance or Advantage?	EU Commission Wants more Say in Offshore HSE Drilling Moratorium Turned into Precautions Best Practises to Be Enforced in all EU Countries Relates to Companies as Well as Regulatory Authorities Will and Should it also Cover Norway? Ambitions to Lift Standards all over the World Can the EU Provide a More Even Playing Field? Can it Make the North Sea a Single Rig Market? Or Will the EU Be an Incompetent Nuisance?
P573	Tuesday, 12 October 2010 Encouraging IOR - II	Early Decision on Extended License Period Revised PDO to Prepare for Late Life IOR as Point in Award Criteria Public Reporting about IOR Achievements
P572	Wednesday, 6 October 2010 Encouraging IOR - I	Commission Submits 44 IOR Proposals Very Ambitious 70% Vision Discards all Fiscal Improvements Wants License Voting by Percentages
P571	Tuesday, 28 September 2010 BOP Issues	Hayward: Fundamental BOP Redesign Needed Transocean Hands Confirm Poor Maintenance Rig's BOP "Probably Out of Compliance" Early Damage to Annular Preventer Leaks Not Repaired Should A Second Shear Ram Have Been Installed? Possible that Acoustic Control Could Have Helped<
P570	Tuesday, 21 September 2010 Other Stories	Does "Flow up the Casing" Finding Hold? Peer Companies Disagree on Well Design Halliburton Warned about Few Centralizers, but Went Along Did Mud Displacement Take Place Before Cement Firmed? Should Final Plug Have Been Set before Displacement? VIP Visit Ended in Lifeboats Senior BP Rig Official Wanted another Test, but Surrendered Two BP Officials Invoke the Fifth Amendment Too Much Spacer in Well During Test? Bureaucratic Transocean Emergency Procedures Muted Gas and Fire Alarms on Rig
P569	Saturday, 18 September 2010 BP's Story II	The Final Five Broken Barriers A Host of Issues Relating to Blowout Preventer Rig Crew Close to Avoiding Disaster in Final Minutes
P568	Wednesday, 15 September 2010 BP's Story I	BP Submits Macondo Report Says Unfortunate Sequence of Events Caused Accident No Systematic or Well Design Failure Takes Responsibility, but Shared with Contractors Primary Cause Probably Faulty Cement In Total, Eight Barriers Failed
P567	Wednesday, 8 September 2010 Labour's Choice	Aftenposten: Labour's LoVe E&P Supporters Fear Defeat Beliefs that Internal Red-Green Strife Hurts Labour Looking for Compromises PM Denies that Decision Has Been Taken Is Labour's Problem Appearing as too Little or too Much Green? Voters Depart Primarily to E&P-positive "Growth" parties Conservatives and Progress Party at 50% together Labour Has Lost "an Entire Petroleum Cluster" LoVe Issue Turning into a Major Crossroads for Labour Better to Drop Coalition and avoid a Certain 2013 Defeat? Combined LoVe and Strategy Decision could be Delayed a Year
P566	Tuesday, 24 August 2010 Non-Renewable Politicians	Minister Says Statoil Important for Renewables Getting Out "Not the Right Road" Refers to By-Laws Amendment Last Year Centre Party, Socialist Left Party Ready to Use Ownership Power Labour: Statoil Must Make Its Own Commercial Decisions Efforts to Force Statoil Will Not Succeed Possible Solution to Use Statkraft Only Requires Re-Assessment of Statkraft's Position and Role Some Think "Making" Renewables Profitable is Solution But More Subsidies Unlikely to Convince Statoil Bellona: Lund Underwrites Death Sentence Lund: Oil & Gas Vital for Foreseeable Future
P565	Monday, 23 August 2010 Statoil the Renewable	Helge Lund Says Statoil May Drop Renewables Considers Focus at Oil & Gas only Renewables Unprofitable Statement Fine Example of True CSR
P564	Monday, 23 August 2010 Gas Paradigms Changing	Bergens Tidende Says Anti-Gas Power Policy has Failed Questions Wisdom of Offshore Electrification Indicates National CO2 Cap Should be Relaxed Many Economists Recommend Return to Gas Power Trade Union for Energy & Industry Demands Gas Power CCS an Advantage, but Should not Be a Requirement Debate Triggered by Decision on Hardanger Power Line Government Agrees to Study Sea Cables Progress Party Demands Gas Power Included in Study New Gas Power Paradigm Could be Emerging Offshore Electrification Rapidly Losing Support But Government Caught in Its Own Symbol Policy
P563	Monday, 9 August 2010 The Labour Battles	VG: Labour Ready to Drop Impact Study Convinced Coalition Would Break Up Searching for Alternative Acceptable to E&P Supporters But Unlikely that Decision Has Been Taken VG Probably Used by Labour's Left Centre Leader: Coalition Will Survive any LoVe Decision Why Would She Reduce Labour's Risk Perception? Protecting the Coalition more Important than LoVe for Centre Party May Be Effort to Contain Damage to Red-Green Relations May also Be Part of Attempt to Cash in Expected Victory Also Possible that She Knows Something Others Do Not
P562	Sunday, 1 August 2010 Trial Balloon	Labour Top Suggests LoVe Fix Collect Knowledge, but not in Impact Study Conservatives: Disappointed Progress Party: Cowardly Probably Trial Balloon on behalf of PM Knowledge Collection Cover for Evasive Tactics If Confirmed, Never Progress under Red-Green Rule Trade Union Leader Supports Impact Study Indicates no Decision Has Been Taken Labour Has Available a Much Better Strategy
P561	Monday, 19 July 2010 Unifying the Troops	Oil Minister Indicates No to LoVe "Not Right to Do Anything Now" Speculations about Government's Attitude Stoltenberg: Not Dramatic Probably Part of Centre Party Troop Unification Navarsete and Riis-Johansen as "Good Cop, Bad Cop"?
P560	Monday, 5 July 2010 Small Field Problem	New OG21 Strategy Plan No Technology Push from Small Fields Several Mitigation Tools Suggested Large Potential in Even Smaller Fields New Acreage Requires New Technology Strategy Calls for Strong Increase in R&D Funding Careful Hints about Fiscal Improvements More Frontier Perspectives Needed
P559	Thursday, 1 July 2010 240,000 People	Statistics Norway: 206,000 Petroleum Jobs Adding Exports Takes Number to 240,000 Cluster Employment Approaching 150,000 Broadly Consistent with Earlier Assessments
P558	Wednesday, 30 June 2010 21% without Resource Rent	21% of Onshore GDP without Resource Rent Also Cluster Measure above 20% In Addition, 6.7% of "Oil Money" Spending
P557	Wednesday, 30 June 2010 29% of GNP	Statistics Norway Reports Industrial Value Creation Menon Reports Exports from Suppliers Full Value Creation from Petroleum 29% of GNP<
P556	Tuesday, 29 June 2010 The Complacency Cycle	What is the Validity of Risk Assessments? Complacency Apparently among Causes for BP Accident Does Such Human Error Enter Risk Assessments? Inverse Risk Aversion Before/After Accident Risk Should Be Corrected for Cyclical Complacency Exaggerated Risk Aversion Could Increase other Risks Complacency Cycle in Nuclear Industry as well?
P555	Monday, 28 June 2010 Can't Happen Here? - III	Performance-Based Supervision Facilitates Innovation Incentivizes Companies by Allocating Proper Responsibility< Three-Party Cooperation Reduces Risk Compared to US Trade Unions, PSA Play Crucial Roles Concerns about Weaker Employee Ties OLF Integrity Forum Promotes Best Practise Facilitates Peer Control PSA Gets Insight, Foundation for Benchmarking Systems Embedded in Social Fabric, Cluster Culture US Barriers: Lack of Trade Unions, Cooperation Culture
P554	Friday, 25 June 2010 Can't Happen Here? - II	PSA Says Most New US Proposals Implemented in Norway USOCS Spills Per Unit of Oil Production 69% Above NCS Not Including Deepwater Horizon 470% Corrected for NCS Outlier US Authorities Look to Norway
P553	Thursday, 24 June 2010 Can't Happen Here? - I	Could GoM Accident Have Happened Here?< Veritas Report Finds Much Lower Risk in Norway/UK Blowouts 9 Times More Frequent in the GoM All GoM Events Impossible or Less Likely in Norway Major Improvements Due to Technology Risk to Fish Reduced by 75% from Traditional Models
P552	Monday, 21 June 2010 From Buttons to Gags?	Industry Minister Plans New Gags Suggests New Rules for State Enterprises Wants Low Profile on Political Issues Aimed at Statoil and LoVe Negative Effects for Democracy Oil Companies Reluctant to Participate anyway Imbalance already Huge Hostility not Representative of Public Opinion New Reminder that Industry Must Make itself Better Heard
P551	Monday, 14 June 2010 Once in 100,000 Years - II	Deepwater Horizon Only Second Huge Exploration Spill Ever Event Probability Consistent with Veritas Numbers Doesn't Change Risk Assessment from Management Plan "100,000 Years" Refers to Risk for Lost Fish in Plan Area Only Public Perception a Different Story Inverse Risk Aversion before/after an Accident One Worst-Case Spill World-Wide per 15 Years Possible in Future Adding Public Reactions, even more Important to Improve Safety
P550	Tuesday, 25 May 2010 Barents East III	Structures Identified from Russian Seismics Various Structure Maps Circulating Low and Variable Seismic Density Least Uncertainty about Prospects towards the East Some of these on Norwegian Side or Straddling Other Less Known Structures on Norwegian Side Opportunities Everywhere
P549	Thursday, 20 May 2010 Barents East II	Little Known about Resources in Formerly Disputed Area Russians Believe in Huge Resources Other Estimates More Conservative Assessments Mostly Based on Russian Primary Data
P548	Tuesday, 18 May 2010 Barents East I	Norway, Russia Agree to Split Contested Area Agreement in Principle only Published Border Line Described as "Illustration" Strong Political Commitments Ratification Possible within a Year MPE Says E&P Preparations Will Start Soon Presentation for Parliament Early Next Year Socialists May Try Barents East as Trade-Off for LoVe
P547	Tuesday, 11 May 2010 Second Anyway Round	VG: New LoVe Easy Fix Considered No Impact Study, but Same Studies with Different Name Results Can Be Used in Later Impact Study Anyway "Cut and Paste" Operation Possible in Less Than 6 Months Unlikely to Succeed, since Conflict Simply Will Transform Counter-Move: Inflated Study Program in Next Management Plan Small Upside, Downside at least Two Years of Additional Delay Easy Fixes Usually Too Easy to Be True
P546	Tuesday, 11 May 2010 Heritage for E&P?	Proposal to Combine Lofoten Heritage Plan with E&P Plan Area Appears to avoid most NPD Prospects But NPD Prospects May not Be Exhaustive Buffer Zones, Onshore Restrictions Will Apply The Social Cost of Political Compromise
P545	Friday, 7 May 2010 Unsurprising Surprise	Mongstad CCS Decision Delayed to 2014 Media, Opposition Feign Surprise Obvious since Statoil's Master Plan Government Followed Parliament's Instructions Ill-Advised Threat about Non-Confidence Will Appear as Attack from wrong Direction Mistake Was Getting In, not Getting Out Entire CCS Strategy Must Be Reconsidered
P544	Thursday, 22 April 2010 Once in 100,000 Years - I	Agencies Submit Reports for Management Plan Very Low Risk for Fish Even Worst Cases are not Scary 5-10% of Fish Year Class Lost Once in 100,000 Years Equal to 17 Recorded Human Histories No Damage Irreversible Settles Dispute between Agencies Black Day, Green Boss Admitted
P543	Thursday, 15 April 2010 Quiet System Change	ExxonMobil Sells Gassled Interest New Owners Are Infrastructure Funds Cater i. a. to Pension Funds Sale Could Break Perceived Political Barrier Disagreement between Petoro and Gassco Change Probably Mostly Good
P542	Monday, 29 March 2010 Astronauts without Spaceship	Statoil, State Renegotiate Moon Landing 2014 Start-Up Date Dropped by Both Minister Says Needed Time Must Be Used Test Centre Mongstad Further Delayed Some MPs Forget about Decision to Wait for TCM Socialist Left Party Ready to Take Decision in Thin Air "Astronauts Wanting to Land without Technology" First Full-Scale Capture Delayed from 2009 to 2018/19 Fundamentally Faulty Political Strategy to Blame Socialists, Bellona Defeated their Own Purpose Not too Late To Do it Better
P541	Monday, 29 March 2010 High Travel Expenses	New Kårstø CCS Study CCS Price Tag NOK 10-12 Bn 23-27 Bn Including Full Integration Earliest Full-Scale Start-Up in 2018 Additional Power Plant Avoided Spark Spread Problem Avoided But Power Export Changes to Import Local Emission Reduction 2.3 Mill Tonnes/Year Global Emissions May Increase almost As Much How Should Unit Costs Be Calculated?
P540	Thursday, 18 March 2010 Plan B	A Plan B to Meet the Shale Challenge? Global Investment Will Move from Offshore to Onshore Increased Competition between Gas Producers Long Term Contracts May Disappear NCS Competitive Advantages Must be Used Can We Cross New Offshore Frontiers in Time? Interesting Market for Many Suppliers But Challenge for Maritime Sector Plan B is really an Accelerated Plan A
P539	Wednesday, 17 March 2010 Shale Politics	Shale Gas Revolution Invalidates "Peak Oil & Gas" Will Increase Trust in Long Time Horizon for Oil & Gas Will Change Approach to Security of Supply Gas Likely to Emerge as Preferred Climate Solution, but how fast? US, European Climate Commitments Can Be Met with Gas alone Interest in Gas for Vehicle Fuel Likely to Increase Can Shale Gas "Create Its Own Market"? Possible if Industry Can Convince Politicians
P538	Friday, 12 March 2010 Shale Future	ExxonMobil, other Majors, Moving into Shale Gas Also in Europe, China, South Africa Driven by Oil Resource Nationalism Promises more Technology Development Opportunities with Rigs, Seismics, Reservoir, ICT Likely to Add Huge Global Resources A European Shale Industry in 10-20 Years?
P537	Wednesday, 10 March 2010 Shale Shelling	Shale Gas Puts Shtokman on Hold Could Be for a Long Time Delays also for Nabucco Gas New Large Shale Discovery in Quebec Expectations of North American Self-Sufficiency Pressure on LNG and other Gas Markets Gazprom Already Selling some Gas at Spot Prices Conventional Producers Must Rethink
P536	Tuesday, 2 February 2010 Giske's Self-Trap	Government, Aker Amend Partnership Deal Veto Right for Related Party Transactions Information Channel Opened to Minister Poor Clarity about Limitations Minister Risks Constitutional Responsibility What Happens after Next Media Storm? New Aker Strategy May Keep Trap from Closing General State Activism Fortunately Forgotten
P535	Wednesday, 27 January 2010 Coming Home?	Conservatives Refuse to Intervene against Oil Sands Indicate Preference for Non-Selective Mitigation Good Step towards Ideologically Consistent Climate Policy
P534	Wednesday, 27 January 2010 Blowing in the Wind - or Not	20% Load Factor for Wind Power in Germany, UK No Wind Energy Produced during UK Cold Spell Wind Power Requires Full Back-Up Wind Mostly Poor Fossil Power Clean-Up Attempt Large Efficiency Losses in Main System May Cancel Saved Emissions Land Use Change, Life Cycle Energy Use in Addition Wind Just as Challenged as Biofuels, Fossils All Easy Solutions Gone CCS Beats Wind as Mitigation Technology
P533	Monday, 25 January 2010 Not Time for Sanctions	NPD Releases NCS Report 2009 Criticizes Companies for Lacking IOR Investment Could Have Consequences for License Awards Reasons for Behaviour Poorly Understood Causes Must Be Clarified before Decisions on Mitigation Valid also for Field Development Delays Difference Commercial/Social Profitability? Casts Doubts on MoF Tax Neutrality Hypothesis Back to Materiality and Returns to Intangibles Other Market Failures?
P532	Monday, 18 January 2010 Mixed Opinions	73% Support Impact Study for LoVe 55% Believe in Co-Existence 86% Have Good Impression of Industry 75% Believe Industry is Innovative 71% Know It is a World Leader 57% Believe Safety is Better than Onshore 57% Believe in NCS Oil & Gas for More than 50 Years Lower Scores from Women and Young People Highest Confidence in Oil Industry on Value Creation Lowest Confidence in Greens People Identify Three Main Clusters Top Score for Oil & Gas, Surprisingly Low for Shipping
P531	Wednesday, 13 January 2010 Museum Lofoten?	Ministry Speeds Up Lofoten World Heritage Process Indicates It Will Lean on Locals Locals Want to Know More Minister Says Heritage List Incompatible with E&P Clearly Incompatible with a Lot More Locals Want it to Be Compatible with Social Advancement Suggest Small Heritage Area that would not Stop E&P Appears also Better Fit to Purpose Minister Insists on Maximum Coverage, also Offshore Must Be Designed to Stop E&P
P530	Monday, 4 January 2010 The News We Want in 2010	Suggestions for an Agenda for the New Year
P529	Friday, 1 January 2010 Climategate III	Long List of Accusations from Critics Most External Defenders Agree to Wrongdoing But Deny It Has Influenced the Science Claim Major Conclusions Not Dependent on Group Is that Possible? UK Met Office to Spend Three Years to Verify CRU Data Universities Investigate Mailers Why Didn't Insiders React Earlier? Why Doesn't the IPCC Admit to Anything Wrong? External Defenders' View Cannot Be Supported Either Mailers are Clean, or at least Some Science is Faulty
P528	Friday, 1 January, 2010 Climategate II	Source May be Whistle-Blower Volume Probably Prepared Internally Could Have Been Openly Posted by Mistake Some Suspect Chinese Intelligence

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