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PETROLEUM CHANNEL (BTNP) - BACK ISSUES
2010
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P586 Thursday, 30 December 2010
The Øksnes Demands
  • Preparedness, Development Fund Most Important
  • Mandatory Landing Difficult
  • Good Solutions Can Be Found for All Points
  • Requires an Upgraded Impact Study Process
P585 Wednesday, 22 December 2010
Fishermen Go for Control
  • Local Fishermen Present Demands for LoVe E&P
  • If Taken Seriously, Will Support Impact Study
  • Tough Demands, but Good Foundation for Negotiations
  • Regional, National Fishermen's Bodies May Follow
  • Logic is Taking Control of the Process
  • Tired of Black/White Arguments
  • Important for Fishermen Not to Be By-Passed
  • Initiative Will Bring Opening Decision Closer
  • But on Stricter Terms; More Important to Fishermen
  • Time/Terms Asymmetry Means Common Interests Now
P584 Tuesday, 21 December 2010
Encouraging IOR - V
  • Mixed Reception of Regulatory Proposals
  • None Likely to Be Implemented as Proposed
  • But Commission's Intentions Will Be Heard
P583 Monday, 20 December 2010
Invalid Wait Option
  • Vista Claims "Wait Option Value" for LoVe Opening
  • Incorrect Use of Real-Option Theory
  • Unjustified Use of NPD Scenarios
  • No Wait Option from Resource Uncertainty
  • Gain from Partial Opening also a Fallacy
  • Other Conditional Knowledge Can't Make a Difference
  • NPV Losses Will Always Dominate
  • In Addition, Other Large Delay Costs
P582 Wednesday, 15 December 2010
Sugar-Coating and Evasions
  • LoVe "Probably Profitable" Understatement of the Year
  • Vista Devalues Its Own Good Work
  • Impression Further Skewed in MoE Press Release
  • Stand-Alone LoVe Analysis Far from Sufficient
  • Risk and Gain to Knowledge Capital Not Discussed
  • Infrastructure and Market Related Value Evaded
  • Reduced Tanker Risk Only Briefly Mentioned
P581 Thursday, 9 December 2010
Benefits to Costs 100:1
  • First Socio-Economic LoVe Analysis
  • Risk to Fisheries and Tourism 0.5% of Oil & Gas Value
  • Risk to Non-Market Values Hardly Much Larger
  • High Socio-Economic Value Extremely Robust
  • Benefits to Costs Ratio 100:1
P580 Monday, 6 December 2010
Modest Lessons
  • Not Much for Norway to Learn from Macondo
  • Most Improvement Processes Home-Driven
  • Compliance More Important than New Rules
  • Complacency the Demon We Always Must Fight
  • LoVe Underlines the Need to Close Technology Gaps
P579 Monday, 6 December 2010
Worst Case not Worse
  • Task Force Rejects Macondo as LoVe Worst Case
  • Majority Sees No Reason to Make Worst Case Worse
  • Green Agencies Dissent, Cannot Say How Much Worse
  • More Oil Stranding from New Model Locations in Worst Case
  • Due to Location Changes, Not Macondo
  • Gives Scary Impression
  • New Mitigation Methods Would Downscale Worst Case
P578 Wednesday, 1 December 2010
Encouraging IOR - IV
  • Mixed Response in Hearing Process
  • OLF, Oil Companies Want New Tax Discussion
  • Industry Rejects New Voting Rules
P577 Friday, 19 November 2010
A Golden Age for Gas
  • WEO 2010: Fossils Still Dominant in 2035 and Beyond
  • Suggests Golden Age for Gas
  • Gas Grows Even in Climate Activist "450 Scenario"
  • But 450 Scenario Admitted to Be Close to Unreachable
  • Even Harder with Realistic Modelling of Renewables
  • Better 450 Scenario Required
  • More Gas Plus Forest Uptake Will Do the Job
P576 Monday, 15 November 2010
The Economy of Decline
  • Statistics Norway Assesses Effects of Falling Production
  • Confirms Norway Doesn't Suffer from Dutch Disease
  • Fund Will Continue to Sustain Public Sector
  • Suppliers Expected to Restructure
  • Labour and Capital Used in Other Sectors
  • Human Capital as always the Crucial Factor
  • But Decline in the Most Productive Sector Will Reduce Growth
  • "Shock" from Faster Decline "Can Be Handled"
  • Report Likely to Under-Estimate Productivity Loss
  • Classical Macro Modelling Doesn't Capture Cluster Effects
  • Economy's Flexibility Safety Net for Resource Depletion
P575 Monday, 1 November 2010
Encouraging IOR - III
  • Åm Commission Worried about High Costs
  • Rig Upgrading Costs Still a Problem
  • Wants Joint Effort for Cost Reductions
  • Suggests EU/EEA Standardization
  • Calls for More Cost/Benefit Analysis for HSE
  • Long History of Cost Discussions
P574 Wednesday, 20 October 2010
Nuisance or Advantage?
  • EU Commission Wants more Say in Offshore HSE
  • Drilling Moratorium Turned into Precautions
  • Best Practises to Be Enforced in all EU Countries
  • Relates to Companies as Well as Regulatory Authorities
  • Will and Should it also Cover Norway?
  • Ambitions to Lift Standards all over the World
  • Can the EU Provide a More Even Playing Field?
  • Can it Make the North Sea a Single Rig Market?
  • Or Will the EU Be an Incompetent Nuisance?
P573 Tuesday, 12 October 2010
Encouraging IOR - II
  • Early Decision on Extended License Period
  • Revised PDO to Prepare for Late Life
  • IOR as Point in Award Criteria
  • Public Reporting about IOR Achievements
P572 Wednesday, 6 October 2010
Encouraging IOR - I
  • Commission Submits 44 IOR Proposals
  • Very Ambitious 70% Vision
  • Discards all Fiscal Improvements
  • Wants License Voting by Percentages
P571 Tuesday, 28 September 2010
BOP Issues
  • Hayward: Fundamental BOP Redesign Needed
  • Transocean Hands Confirm Poor Maintenance
  • Rig's BOP "Probably Out of Compliance"
  • Early Damage to Annular Preventer
  • Leaks Not Repaired
  • Should A Second Shear Ram Have Been Installed?
  • Possible that Acoustic Control Could Have Helped<
P570 Tuesday, 21 September 2010
Other Stories
  • Does "Flow up the Casing" Finding Hold?
  • Peer Companies Disagree on Well Design
  • Halliburton Warned about Few Centralizers, but Went Along
  • Did Mud Displacement Take Place Before Cement Firmed?
  • Should Final Plug Have Been Set before Displacement?
  • VIP Visit Ended in Lifeboats
  • Senior BP Rig Official Wanted another Test, but Surrendered
  • Two BP Officials Invoke the Fifth Amendment
  • Too Much Spacer in Well During Test?
  • Bureaucratic Transocean Emergency Procedures
  • Muted Gas and Fire Alarms on Rig
P569 Saturday, 18 September 2010
BP's Story II
  • The Final Five Broken Barriers
  • A Host of Issues Relating to Blowout Preventer
  • Rig Crew Close to Avoiding Disaster in Final Minutes
P568 Wednesday, 15 September 2010
BP's Story I
  • BP Submits Macondo Report
  • Says Unfortunate Sequence of Events Caused Accident
  • No Systematic or Well Design Failure
  • Takes Responsibility, but Shared with Contractors
  • Primary Cause Probably Faulty Cement
  • In Total, Eight Barriers Failed
P567 Wednesday, 8 September 2010
Labour's Choice
  • Aftenposten: Labour's LoVe E&P Supporters Fear Defeat
  • Beliefs that Internal Red-Green Strife Hurts Labour
  • Looking for Compromises
  • PM Denies that Decision Has Been Taken
  • Is Labour's Problem Appearing as too Little or too Much Green?
  • Voters Depart Primarily to E&P-positive "Growth" parties
  • Conservatives and Progress Party at 50% together
  • Labour Has Lost "an Entire Petroleum Cluster"
  • LoVe Issue Turning into a Major Crossroads for Labour
  • Better to Drop Coalition and avoid a Certain 2013 Defeat?
  • Combined LoVe and Strategy Decision could be Delayed a Year
P566 Tuesday, 24 August 2010
Non-Renewable Politicians
  • Minister Says Statoil Important for Renewables
  • Getting Out "Not the Right Road"
  • Refers to By-Laws Amendment Last Year
  • Centre Party, Socialist Left Party Ready to Use Ownership Power
  • Labour: Statoil Must Make Its Own Commercial Decisions
  • Efforts to Force Statoil Will Not Succeed
  • Possible Solution to Use Statkraft Only
  • Requires Re-Assessment of Statkraft's Position and Role
  • Some Think "Making" Renewables Profitable is Solution
  • But More Subsidies Unlikely to Convince Statoil
  • Bellona: Lund Underwrites Death Sentence
  • Lund: Oil & Gas Vital for Foreseeable Future
P565 Monday, 23 August 2010
Statoil the Renewable
  • Helge Lund Says Statoil May Drop Renewables
  • Considers Focus at Oil & Gas only
  • Renewables Unprofitable
  • Statement Fine Example of True CSR
P564 Monday, 23 August 2010
Gas Paradigms Changing
  • Bergens Tidende Says Anti-Gas Power Policy has Failed
  • Questions Wisdom of Offshore Electrification
  • Indicates National CO2 Cap Should be Relaxed
  • Many Economists Recommend Return to Gas Power
  • Trade Union for Energy & Industry Demands Gas Power
  • CCS an Advantage, but Should not Be a Requirement
  • Debate Triggered by Decision on Hardanger Power Line
  • Government Agrees to Study Sea Cables
  • Progress Party Demands Gas Power Included in Study
  • New Gas Power Paradigm Could be Emerging
  • Offshore Electrification Rapidly Losing Support
  • But Government Caught in Its Own Symbol Policy
P563 Monday, 9 August 2010
The Labour Battles
  • VG: Labour Ready to Drop Impact Study
  • Convinced Coalition Would Break Up
  • Searching for Alternative Acceptable to E&P Supporters
  • But Unlikely that Decision Has Been Taken
  • VG Probably Used by Labour's Left
  • Centre Leader: Coalition Will Survive any LoVe Decision
  • Why Would She Reduce Labour's Risk Perception?
  • Protecting the Coalition more Important than LoVe for Centre Party
  • May Be Effort to Contain Damage to Red-Green Relations
  • May also Be Part of Attempt to Cash in Expected Victory
  • Also Possible that She Knows Something Others Do Not
P562 Sunday, 1 August 2010
Trial Balloon
  • Labour Top Suggests LoVe Fix
  • Collect Knowledge, but not in Impact Study
  • Conservatives: Disappointed
  • Progress Party: Cowardly
  • Probably Trial Balloon on behalf of PM
  • Knowledge Collection Cover for Evasive Tactics
  • If Confirmed, Never Progress under Red-Green Rule
  • Trade Union Leader Supports Impact Study
  • Indicates no Decision Has Been Taken
  • Labour Has Available a Much Better Strategy
P561 Monday, 19 July 2010
Unifying the Troops
  • Oil Minister Indicates No to LoVe
  • "Not Right to Do Anything Now"
  • Speculations about Government's Attitude
  • Stoltenberg: Not Dramatic
  • Probably Part of Centre Party Troop Unification
  • Navarsete and Riis-Johansen as "Good Cop, Bad Cop"?
P560 Monday, 5 July 2010
Small Field Problem
  • New OG21 Strategy Plan
  • No Technology Push from Small Fields
  • Several Mitigation Tools Suggested
  • Large Potential in Even Smaller Fields
  • New Acreage Requires New Technology
  • Strategy Calls for Strong Increase in R&D Funding
  • Careful Hints about Fiscal Improvements
  • More Frontier Perspectives Needed
P559 Thursday, 1 July 2010
240,000 People
  • Statistics Norway: 206,000 Petroleum Jobs
  • Adding Exports Takes Number to 240,000
  • Cluster Employment Approaching 150,000
  • Broadly Consistent with Earlier Assessments
P558 Wednesday, 30 June 2010
21% without Resource Rent
  • 21% of Onshore GDP without Resource Rent
  • Also Cluster Measure above 20%
  • In Addition, 6.7% of "Oil Money" Spending
P557 Wednesday, 30 June 2010
29% of GNP
  • Statistics Norway Reports Industrial Value Creation
  • Menon Reports Exports from Suppliers
  • Full Value Creation from Petroleum 29% of GNP<
P556 Tuesday, 29 June 2010
The Complacency Cycle
  • What is the Validity of Risk Assessments?
  • Complacency Apparently among Causes for BP Accident
  • Does Such Human Error Enter Risk Assessments?
  • Inverse Risk Aversion Before/After Accident
  • Risk Should Be Corrected for Cyclical Complacency
  • Exaggerated Risk Aversion Could Increase other Risks
  • Complacency Cycle in Nuclear Industry as well?
P555 Monday, 28 June 2010
Can't Happen Here? - III
  • Performance-Based Supervision Facilitates Innovation
  • Incentivizes Companies by Allocating Proper Responsibility<
  • Three-Party Cooperation Reduces Risk Compared to US
  • Trade Unions, PSA Play Crucial Roles
  • Concerns about Weaker Employee Ties
  • OLF Integrity Forum Promotes Best Practise
  • Facilitates Peer Control
  • PSA Gets Insight, Foundation for Benchmarking
  • Systems Embedded in Social Fabric, Cluster Culture
  • US Barriers: Lack of Trade Unions, Cooperation Culture
P554 Friday, 25 June 2010
Can't Happen Here? - II
  • PSA Says Most New US Proposals Implemented in Norway
  • USOCS Spills Per Unit of Oil Production 69% Above NCS
  • Not Including Deepwater Horizon
  • 470% Corrected for NCS Outlier
  • US Authorities Look to Norway
P553 Thursday, 24 June 2010
Can't Happen Here? - I
  • Could GoM Accident Have Happened Here?<
  • Veritas Report Finds Much Lower Risk in Norway/UK
  • Blowouts 9 Times More Frequent in the GoM
  • All GoM Events Impossible or Less Likely in Norway
  • Major Improvements Due to Technology
  • Risk to Fish Reduced by 75% from Traditional Models
P552 Monday, 21 June 2010
From Buttons to Gags?
  • Industry Minister Plans New Gags
  • Suggests New Rules for State Enterprises
  • Wants Low Profile on Political Issues
  • Aimed at Statoil and LoVe
  • Negative Effects for Democracy
  • Oil Companies Reluctant to Participate anyway
  • Imbalance already Huge
  • Hostility not Representative of Public Opinion
  • New Reminder that Industry Must Make itself Better Heard
P551 Monday, 14 June 2010
Once in 100,000 Years - II
  • Deepwater Horizon Only Second Huge Exploration Spill Ever
  • Event Probability Consistent with Veritas Numbers
  • Doesn't Change Risk Assessment from Management Plan
  • "100,000 Years" Refers to Risk for Lost Fish in Plan Area Only
  • Public Perception a Different Story
  • Inverse Risk Aversion before/after an Accident
  • One Worst-Case Spill World-Wide per 15 Years Possible in Future
  • Adding Public Reactions, even more Important to Improve Safety
P550 Tuesday, 25 May 2010
Barents East III
  • Structures Identified from Russian Seismics
  • Various Structure Maps Circulating
  • Low and Variable Seismic Density
  • Least Uncertainty about Prospects towards the East
  • Some of these on Norwegian Side or Straddling
  • Other Less Known Structures on Norwegian Side
  • Opportunities Everywhere
P549 Thursday, 20 May 2010
Barents East II
  • Little Known about Resources in Formerly Disputed Area
  • Russians Believe in Huge Resources
  • Other Estimates More Conservative
  • Assessments Mostly Based on Russian Primary Data
P548 Tuesday, 18 May 2010
Barents East I
  • Norway, Russia Agree to Split Contested Area
  • Agreement in Principle only
  • Published Border Line Described as "Illustration"
  • Strong Political Commitments
  • Ratification Possible within a Year
  • MPE Says E&P Preparations Will Start Soon
  • Presentation for Parliament Early Next Year
  • Socialists May Try Barents East as Trade-Off for LoVe
P547 Tuesday, 11 May 2010
Second Anyway Round
  • VG: New LoVe Easy Fix Considered
  • No Impact Study, but Same Studies with Different Name
  • Results Can Be Used in Later Impact Study Anyway
  • "Cut and Paste" Operation Possible in Less Than 6 Months
  • Unlikely to Succeed, since Conflict Simply Will Transform
  • Counter-Move: Inflated Study Program in Next Management Plan
  • Small Upside, Downside at least Two Years of Additional Delay
  • Easy Fixes Usually Too Easy to Be True
P546 Tuesday, 11 May 2010
Heritage for E&P?
  • Proposal to Combine Lofoten Heritage Plan with E&P
  • Plan Area Appears to avoid most NPD Prospects
  • But NPD Prospects May not Be Exhaustive
  • Buffer Zones, Onshore Restrictions Will Apply
  • The Social Cost of Political Compromise
P545 Friday, 7 May 2010
Unsurprising Surprise
  • Mongstad CCS Decision Delayed to 2014
  • Media, Opposition Feign Surprise
  • Obvious since Statoil's Master Plan
  • Government Followed Parliament's Instructions
  • Ill-Advised Threat about Non-Confidence
  • Will Appear as Attack from wrong Direction
  • Mistake Was Getting In, not Getting Out
  • Entire CCS Strategy Must Be Reconsidered
P544 Thursday, 22 April 2010
Once in 100,000 Years - I
  • Agencies Submit Reports for Management Plan
  • Very Low Risk for Fish
  • Even Worst Cases are not Scary
  • 5-10% of Fish Year Class Lost Once in 100,000 Years
  • Equal to 17 Recorded Human Histories
  • No Damage Irreversible
  • Settles Dispute between Agencies
  • Black Day, Green Boss Admitted
P543 Thursday, 15 April 2010
Quiet System Change
  • ExxonMobil Sells Gassled Interest
  • New Owners Are Infrastructure Funds
  • Cater i. a. to Pension Funds
  • Sale Could Break Perceived Political Barrier
  • Disagreement between Petoro and Gassco
  • Change Probably Mostly Good
P542 Monday, 29 March 2010
Astronauts without Spaceship
  • Statoil, State Renegotiate Moon Landing
  • 2014 Start-Up Date Dropped by Both
  • Minister Says Needed Time Must Be Used
  • Test Centre Mongstad Further Delayed
  • Some MPs Forget about Decision to Wait for TCM
  • Socialist Left Party Ready to Take Decision in Thin Air
  • "Astronauts Wanting to Land without Technology"
  • First Full-Scale Capture Delayed from 2009 to 2018/19
  • Fundamentally Faulty Political Strategy to Blame
  • Socialists, Bellona Defeated their Own Purpose
  • Not too Late To Do it Better
P541 Monday, 29 March 2010
High Travel Expenses
  • New Kårstø CCS Study
  • CCS Price Tag NOK 10-12 Bn
  • 23-27 Bn Including Full Integration
  • Earliest Full-Scale Start-Up in 2018
  • Additional Power Plant Avoided
  • Spark Spread Problem Avoided
  • But Power Export Changes to Import
  • Local Emission Reduction 2.3 Mill Tonnes/Year
  • Global Emissions May Increase almost As Much
  • How Should Unit Costs Be Calculated?
P540 Thursday, 18 March 2010
Plan B
  • A Plan B to Meet the Shale Challenge?
  • Global Investment Will Move from Offshore to Onshore
  • Increased Competition between Gas Producers
  • Long Term Contracts May Disappear
  • NCS Competitive Advantages Must be Used
  • Can We Cross New Offshore Frontiers in Time?
  • Interesting Market for Many Suppliers
  • But Challenge for Maritime Sector
  • Plan B is really an Accelerated Plan A
P539 Wednesday, 17 March 2010
Shale Politics
  • Shale Gas Revolution Invalidates "Peak Oil & Gas"
  • Will Increase Trust in Long Time Horizon for Oil & Gas
  • Will Change Approach to Security of Supply
  • Gas Likely to Emerge as Preferred Climate Solution, but how fast?
  • US, European Climate Commitments Can Be Met with Gas alone
  • Interest in Gas for Vehicle Fuel Likely to Increase
  • Can Shale Gas "Create Its Own Market"?
  • Possible if Industry Can Convince Politicians
P538 Friday, 12 March 2010
Shale Future
  • ExxonMobil, other Majors, Moving into Shale Gas
  • Also in Europe, China, South Africa
  • Driven by Oil Resource Nationalism
  • Promises more Technology Development
  • Opportunities with Rigs, Seismics, Reservoir, ICT
  • Likely to Add Huge Global Resources
  • A European Shale Industry in 10-20 Years?
P537 Wednesday, 10 March 2010
Shale Shelling
  • Shale Gas Puts Shtokman on Hold
  • Could Be for a Long Time
  • Delays also for Nabucco Gas
  • New Large Shale Discovery in Quebec
  • Expectations of North American Self-Sufficiency
  • Pressure on LNG and other Gas Markets
  • Gazprom Already Selling some Gas at Spot Prices
  • Conventional Producers Must Rethink
P536 Tuesday, 2 February 2010
Giske's Self-Trap
  • Government, Aker Amend Partnership Deal
  • Veto Right for Related Party Transactions
  • Information Channel Opened to Minister
  • Poor Clarity about Limitations
  • Minister Risks Constitutional Responsibility
  • What Happens after Next Media Storm?
  • New Aker Strategy May Keep Trap from Closing
  • General State Activism Fortunately Forgotten
P535 Wednesday, 27 January 2010
Coming Home?
  • Conservatives Refuse to Intervene against Oil Sands
  • Indicate Preference for Non-Selective Mitigation
  • Good Step towards Ideologically Consistent Climate Policy
P534 Wednesday, 27 January 2010
Blowing in the Wind - or Not
  • 20% Load Factor for Wind Power in Germany, UK
  • No Wind Energy Produced during UK Cold Spell
  • Wind Power Requires Full Back-Up
  • Wind Mostly Poor Fossil Power Clean-Up Attempt
  • Large Efficiency Losses in Main System
  • May Cancel Saved Emissions
  • Land Use Change, Life Cycle Energy Use in Addition
  • Wind Just as Challenged as Biofuels, Fossils
  • All Easy Solutions Gone
  • CCS Beats Wind as Mitigation Technology
P533 Monday, 25 January 2010
Not Time for Sanctions
  • NPD Releases NCS Report 2009
  • Criticizes Companies for Lacking IOR Investment
  • Could Have Consequences for License Awards
  • Reasons for Behaviour Poorly Understood
  • Causes Must Be Clarified before Decisions on Mitigation
  • Valid also for Field Development Delays
  • Difference Commercial/Social Profitability?
  • Casts Doubts on MoF Tax Neutrality Hypothesis
  • Back to Materiality and Returns to Intangibles
  • Other Market Failures?
P532 Monday, 18 January 2010
Mixed Opinions
  • 73% Support Impact Study for LoVe
  • 55% Believe in Co-Existence
  • 86% Have Good Impression of Industry
  • 75% Believe Industry is Innovative
  • 71% Know It is a World Leader
  • 57% Believe Safety is Better than Onshore
  • 57% Believe in NCS Oil & Gas for More than 50 Years
  • Lower Scores from Women and Young People
  • Highest Confidence in Oil Industry on Value Creation
  • Lowest Confidence in Greens
  • People Identify Three Main Clusters
  • Top Score for Oil & Gas, Surprisingly Low for Shipping
P531 Wednesday, 13 January 2010
Museum Lofoten?
  • Ministry Speeds Up Lofoten World Heritage Process
  • Indicates It Will Lean on Locals
  • Locals Want to Know More
  • Minister Says Heritage List Incompatible with E&P
  • Clearly Incompatible with a Lot More
  • Locals Want it to Be Compatible with Social Advancement
  • Suggest Small Heritage Area that would not Stop E&P
  • Appears also Better Fit to Purpose
  • Minister Insists on Maximum Coverage, also Offshore
  • Must Be Designed to Stop E&P
P530 Monday, 4 January 2010
The News We Want in 2010
  • Suggestions for an Agenda for the New Year
P529 Friday, 1 January 2010
Climategate III
  • Long List of Accusations from Critics
  • Most External Defenders Agree to Wrongdoing
  • But Deny It Has Influenced the Science
  • Claim Major Conclusions Not Dependent on Group
  • Is that Possible?
  • UK Met Office to Spend Three Years to Verify CRU Data
  • Universities Investigate Mailers
  • Why Didn't Insiders React Earlier?
  • Why Doesn't the IPCC Admit to Anything Wrong?
  • External Defenders' View Cannot Be Supported
  • Either Mailers are Clean, or at least Some Science is Faulty
P528 Friday, 1 January, 2010
Climategate II
  • Source May be Whistle-Blower
  • Volume Probably Prepared Internally
  • Could Have Been Openly Posted by Mistake
  • Some Suspect Chinese Intelligence

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