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PETROLEUM CHANNEL (BTNP) - BACK ISSUES
2009
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P527 Wednesday, 30 December 2009
Climategate I
  • Relevant for Industry's Risk Management
  • Damning at Face Value
  • Needs to Be Further Investigated
  • Raises Questions about IPCC's Assumed Neutrality
  • Human Nature to Favour the Expected
  • Study Shows this Causes Bias also in Research
  • Trusting a Single Institution a Risky Matter
  • Climategate May Contribute to Political Moderation
  • Will anyway Open More Insight for Independent Review
P526 Tuesday, 22 December 2009
The Unseen Toolbox
  • Parliament Worried about Supply Industry
  • Conservatives Ask for Action
  • Mention Tax, Petoro
  • Ministers Can't Find any Tools
  • But the Toolbox is there
  • Not Necessary to Coerce Anybody
  • Fiscal Incentives for Big and Small
  • Using Petoro and SDFI for Diversity and Flexibility
  • Helping Statoil with Sound Restructuring
  • Beneficial also in the Long Term
P525 Tuesday, 22 December 2009
Petoro's Gold
  • Opposition Wants Report on Petoro's Role and Future
  • Underlines New Post-Merger Role
  • Conservatives Add NOK 50 Mill
  • All Parties Support Efforts to Accelerate Investment
  • Slow Movement Away from Initial Limitations
  • But 2002 Ban on Portfolio Management Still in Place
  • Violates Petroleum Act and Original Political Agreement
  • Worse when Resources Insufficient to Watch All Licenses
  • Much Need for Full Reconsideration
P524 Monday, 7 December 2009
Contentious Fuel II
  • UNEP Biofuel Report Confirms World Needs Oil
  • Also Oil "Part of the Solution", like Gas
  • Report Suggests Policies to Mitigate Biofuels' Adverse Effects
  • But these Policies Cannot Solve Land Use Problem
  • Forests, Valuable Land should be Protected by Price Tags
  • Very Limited Sustainable Room for Biofuels/Biomass
  • Cannot Replace Fossil Fuels
  • Can At Best Cover Demand Growth
  • UNEP Support for Cost-Effective Mitigation Policy
P523 Monday, 30 November 2009
Contentious Fuel I
  • UNEP Panel Submits Biofuels Assessment
  • Confirms Earlier Research on Adverse Land Use Effects
  • Life Cycle Analysis Show Wildly Diverging Net Climate Effects
  • But Do Not Include Global Land Displacement Effects
  • Full Inclusion of Land Use Will Reduce Value of All Biofuels
  • Total Effect Likely to Be Strongly Increased Emissions
  • Certification Systems Won't Help Much
  • Land Use Change Particularly Damaging for Bio Diversity
  • Direct Competition with Food about Land and Water
  • Strong Verdict Over Fragmented Climate Mitigation Policies
P522 Thursday, 19 November 2009
Good Outlook
  • IEA Submits World Energy Outlook 2009
  • Gas, Oil Growth Also in Climate Mitigation Scenario
  • Combines Climate, Development, Energy Objectives
  • Based on "Not First Best" Policy Assumptions
  • 2030 Efficiency Gap 13 Times 2007 Development Aid
  • Supply Constraints in Conflict with Mitigation Principles
  • Norway Expected to Increase Gas Exports
  • Norwegian Sea Gas Very Competitive
  • Critics Say Oil Targets Out of Reach
  • If True, Norwegian Contribution Even More Important
P521 Wednesday, 11 November 2009
Sluggish Statoil?
  • Petoro Says Capital Discipline Delays Projects
  • Statoil Particularly Fingered
  • Majorities Formed against Statoil in some Licenses
  • May Hold Back at Home to Follow Flow Abroad
  • But Divests from Peregrino, GoM
  • Reluctant to Admit to Capital Constraints
  • Blames Politicians' Failure to Open Acreage
  • Refers to Price Uncertainty, Need for Reduced Costs
P520 Monday, 9 November 2009
Last Year's Christmas Gift
  • Minister Invites Companies to Nominate for 21st Round
  • Claims It Will Help Service Industry in Crisis
  • Solvik-Olsen: Last Year's Christmas Gift
  • Policy Change to Enhance Gift Value is Possible
  • Det Norske: Open the Entire Barents Sea
  • Greens Now Openly Opposed to all new Licensing
P519 Monday, 19 October 2009
Games within Games
  • Minister Doesn't Exclude Early Impact Study
  • Soria Moria II Ambiguities
  • Possible Labour Back Door
  • Preparations for Hard-Line in Management Plan?
P518 Monday, 19 October 2009
Popular Support
  • Large Majority Supports Impact Study
P517 Wednesday, 14 October 2009
Cover-Up Still Unravelled
  • Little Attention to LoVe Delay in Parliament
  • Mild Criticism from Conservatives Only
  • Progress Party Buys "Inevitable" Version
  • Fears of Appearing more Eager than Labour?
  • Both Have Second Chance in State Budget
  • Can Show Opening Decision Still Can Be Taken as Planned
  • ULB Required One Year and Four Months
  • Only Updating Required in new Impact Study
  • Any Remaining Knowledge Gaps Are Self-Inflicted
P516 Friday, 9 October 2009
Retreat for Nothing
  • No LoVe Opening Decision in Election Period
  • Decision on Impact Studies Only in 2010/11
  • New Parliament Report on Petroleum
  • APA to Be Evaluated, Apparently Protected in Principle
  • Statoil Ownership Freeze Continued
  • SDFI Assets not to Decrease
  • Open Schedule for Kårstø, Mongstad CCS<
  • Relaxed Limits for Hydro Power
  • Ambiguous on Subsidies for Renewables
  • Reassessment of Climate Mitigation Policies
P515 Monday, 5 October 2009
Gags and Buttons II
  • Old Statoil Hand Reports on Self-Censorship
  • Warns about Dangerous Silence
  • NPD: Can't Compensate
  • But it Must Contribute Within Own Competence
  • Minister's Competence Statement Nonsense
  • Lund: Tired of Stigmatization of Oil & Gas
  • Signals small Modification of Silence Policy?
  • Parliament Report on Petroleum "Fairly Early in Period"
  • No Guarantee about Contents
P514 Thursday, 1 October 2009
Gags and Buttons I
  • Ministry Censored NPD Scenarios
  • Politically Inconvenient before Election
  • Raised Challenging Issues about NCS and Climate
  • Minister Casts Doubts about NPD's Competence
  • Claims Decision Was Taken by Civil Service
  • Is That Possible?
P513 Tuesday, 29 September 2009
Half Full or Half Empty?
  • MPE Minister Visits Jan Mayen
  • Conflicting Media Interpretations
  • Greens "Geology Experts", Too
  • Accusations of Tactical Motives
  • Impact Study Completed in Three Years
  • Covers Area to Greenland Border
  • Exploration Realistic by 2020
  • Also Sagex Withdraws from Iceland's Dreki
  • Tax System Main Deterrent
  • Iceland to Reconsider, Aims at New Tender
P512 Tuesday, 22 September 2009
Tactical Retreat
  • Greens Recommend SV to Take LoVe Battle in Management Plan
  • Probably Means No Decision in "Soria Moria 2"
  • Tactical Retreat to Avoid Responsibility for Impact Studies
  • Possible Attempt to Use Local 2011 Elections
  • Northern Labour Tops: Let Parliament Decide
  • Assume Impact Study Must Follow Management Plan
  • Top Trade Unionist: Let SV Leave rather than Permanent Protection
  • "2013 Inevitability" Probably Part of Labour Strategy
  • Aker, FMC Speak out on LoVe
P511 Wednesday, 16 September 2009
Democracy Pre-Empted?
  • PM Postpones Impact Studies
  • Pretends It is Dictated by Law
  • Confirms Pre-Election Rumours
  • Negative Reactions from Conservatives, Progress Party
  • OLF: Election Favours Decision for Opening
  • Confirmed by Socialist Left Party's Own Statements
  • PM Says Parties' Strength Must Influence Policies
  • Why Does He Give Concessions Before Negotiations?
P510 Wednesday, 9 September 2009
Spinners Out-Spinned
  • Veritas Simulates Lofoten Oil Blowout
  • One Stranding per 170,000 Years per Production Well
  • Or One per 13,000 Exploration Wells
  • Average Size 43 Tonnes
  • Worst Cases 1-2 Times "Full City"
  • Disappointing for Green Customer
  • For Once, OLF's Version Dominated Media
  • Shows it Is Possible to Balance Green Media Hegemony
P509 Sunday, 6 September 2009
Foundation for Visions
  • New NPD Resource Report
  • Shows Effects of No New Acreage since 1994
  • Barents Sea Adjusted Down
  • StatoilHydro Without Barents Exploration Prospects
  • Smaller Companies Looking for New Models
  • Behind Schedule on Reserve Growth
  • Increased R&D Effort Vital
  • More Research on Innovation Drivers Required
  • Needed: A Real Strategic Plan with Visions
P508 Monday, 31 August 2009
LoVe or Not - III
  • Labour Decides LoVe Under Non-Socialist Majority
  • Liberals, Christians Cannot Stop anything
  • Progress Party Promises Immediate Impact Studies
P507 Friday, 28 August 2009
LoVe or Not - II
  • What Will Happen Under New Red-Green Government?
  • Contents of Compromise Dependent on Start Positions
P506 Tuesday, 25 August 2009
LoVe or Not - I
  • What Are the real Options for LoVe?
  • Must new Impact Studies Postpone Decision until 2013?
  • Has the Government Misguided Everybody?
  • Charade, Says Commentator
P505 Tuesday, 18 August 2009
Taking the Lead
  • Lofoten/Vesterålen Hot Election Issue
  • Conservative Party Taking the Yes Lead
  • Proposes Fund for Lofoten/Vesterålen
  • Appeals to Voters in Western, Northern Norway
P504 Thursday, 23 July 2009
Small Improvements
  • Small Improvements on E&P in Final Party Platforms
  • Only Socialist Left Party Clear about Permanent Protection
  • Christians Explicitly Removed Permanence from Compromise
  • Liberals Apparently Quietly Did the Same
  • Both May also Have Opened Back Doors to Limited Zones
  • Conservatives Committed to Open All Promising Areas
  • Similar Commitment from Progress Party
  • Labour Still Undecided, but Interpreted as Positive
P503 Monday, 20 July 2009
A Good Day
  • Goliat Approved
  • Only Liberals (Almost) Opposed
  • Christians Play both Sides
  • Irrational Electrification Demands
  • Liberals Unconcerned about Spin-Offs
P502 Wednesday, 15 July 2009
Knowledge and Politics
  • Management Plan for Norwegian Sea Approved
  • Conservatives, Progress Party against Møre Embargo
  • Liberals, Christians against Jan Mayen Opening Process
  • No Explicit Demands for Permanent Petroleum Free Zones
  • Major Faults with Planning Process not Recognized
  • Decisions Depend too much on Politics
P501 Monday, 6 July 2009
Brækken
  • Gro Brækken OLF's new CEO
  • Last Job Secretary General of Save the Children
  • Long Experience from Petroleum Industry, Banking, More
  • Idealist - also for the Petroleum Industry
  • Appointment Signals More Offensive or More Defensive Approach?
P500 Wednesday, 1 July 2009
A Magic Lunch Hour
  • Marathon in Parliament before Summer Vacation
  • Five Petroleum Related Issues in One Day
  • Not Non-Confidence against Industry Minister
  • No Request to Pull Statoil out of Oil Sands
  • Governance Principles Revived after Lunch Hour
  • All Parties Willing to Put Tactics before Principles
  • Aker Holding Survives for Now
  • What Should Be Done with the State's Stake in Aker Solutions?
P499 Thursday, 11 June 2009
Own Goal
  • Control Committee Submits Aker Report
  • Agrees about "Active and Conscious State Ownership"
  • "Like Other Industrial Owners"
  • Non-Socialists: Ministry Should Have Had Opinion on Strategy, Price
  • Broader Door to Intervention in Commercial Matters
  • No Limitations to Companies or Kind of Issues
  • Should Be Major Worry for Statoil, Others
  • Aker Solutions' General Meeting Confirms Transactions
  • 46% of Voting Stock Represented
  • 58% "No" Vote from Represented Stock outside Aker Holding
P498 Friday, 5 June 2009
Opposition Attacks
  • Motion of Non-Confidence against Brustad
  • Supported by all Non-Socialists
  • Red-Greens Unite in Defence
  • Different Approach Progress Party, Others
  • Progress Party Focus at Minister's "Easter War"
  • Others Say Minister Should Have Intervened Early
  • One Way Only to Avoid Own Goal:
  • Brustad Could Have Replaced Board Member Kjøll
  • Option Could Unite all Non-Socialists
  • Would Make it a Matter of Principle, not Good or Bad Job only
P497 Tuesday, 2 June 2009
The Never-Ending Story II
  • No Support for Brustad in Parliament Reports
  • Barriers against Intervention Should be Fortified
  • Minutes from Ownership Meetings Etc Should be Public
P496 Monday, 1 June 2009
The Never-Ending Story I
  • Minister Tries to Reinvent State Governance
  • Opens Barriers that Should Remain Closed
  • Unable to Find Support in Own Parliament Report
  • Spill-Over Risks to Statoil, Others
  • Good Reasons why State Should be Withdrawn
  • Basic Reason Related to Constitutional Responsibility
  • But Often Poorly Understood
P495 Wednesday, 27 May 2009
Small Dragons from Norway
  • Aker, Sagex only Applicants in Iceland
  • Tax Rules Likely Deterrent
  • Mixture of Positive and Negative Aspects
  • One Block Applied for at Norwegian Border
  • First Norwegian Step towards Opening
P494 Monday, 25 May 2009
Barriers under Pressure
  • Protests against Statoil's Oil Sand Project
  • Defeated at General Meeting
  • State Cast Its Votes against
  • Reference to Proper Governance
  • Environment Minister Endorsed Proposal
  • Storebrand Inconsistent
  • Motion in Parliament Referred Committee
  • Non-Socialist Wanted a Reality Vote
  • Uncertainty about Outcome in Committee
  • Virtual Minority World Vs Real Majority World
P493 Wednesday, 20 May 2009
New Reality Encounter
  • Kårstø Capture Cancelled for Now
  • Pending Experience with Gas Power Regularity
  • Integration with Terminal to Be Considered
  • Minister Mentions NOK 8 Bn as Capex
P492 Tuesday, 19 May 2009
Eyes of the Beholder
  • UBS Says Transactions Were Fair
  • Pareto with Opposite Opinion
  • Outsider and Insider Assumptions
  • Reports Answer Different Questions
  • Much of Difference is Knowledge Capital
  • Invisible to Outsiders
  • Inside View is Better Informed
  • Non-Socialists Must Avoid Making Own Goal
P491 Monday, 18 May 2009
Full Retreat
  • Government Accepts Aker Deal
  • Presentation at General Meeting
  • Review of Shareholders' Agreement
  • State Ownership main Loser
  • Question now is about Governance
P490 Monday, 11 May 2009
Political Risk Aversion
  • Management Plan Norwegian Sea Submitted
  • No Permanent Protection
  • Large Areas Closed until 2014
  • Extensive New Restrictions
  • Start of Opening Process for Jan Mayen
  • Reports Prove Risk is Very Small
  • No Irreversible Damage Claimed
  • No Risk/Reward Analysis
  • Final Decisions Based on Political Risks
P489 Monday, 4 May 2009
CCS Sensibility Emerging
  • Parliament Postpones Full-Scale Mongstad CCS
  • Will Wait for Test Centre Findings
  • Too Early to Pick Winners
  • Opposition: Open for Other Technologies
  • Wants State Purchase System Considered
  • What then about Earlier Kårstø CCS Decision?
P488 Thursday, 30 April 2009
Skanled Cancelled
  • Skanled Partnership Cancels Project
  • Gassco, MPE Quote Uncertainty about Gas Demand
  • Could Be Discussed again if Conditions Improve
  • Petoro Highlights Cost Problem
  • Minister, Region, LO Disappointed
  • Progress Party: Government to Blame
  • Defeat for "Governance by Semaphore"
  • Deception or Ignorance?
P487 Tuesday, 21 April 2009
Stoltenberg's War
  • Government, Aker Take Time-Out
  • Waiting for New Value Assessments
  • Did Aker Dump Garbage at Aker Solutions?
  • Did Aker Cut Corners in Decision-Making Process?
  • Why Did the Government Declare War?
  • Now, Labour Regrets Belligerence
  • Still Insists on "Victory"
P486 Wednesday, 8 April 2009
More Dog-Wagging II
  • Integration No Help for Kårstø Capture
  • Holds also in Lower Capture Cost Scenario
  • Grey Zone with Rock Bottom Costs
  • Even when Counting Local Emissions only
  • Most Scenarios Deteriorate when Counting Global Emissions
  • Some Scenarios Bring Global Unit Cost "Beyond Infinity"
  • Covering Naturkraft Loss for Full Regularity Better Idea
  • Export More Gas Best Climate Mitigation Policy
  • Constructing more Power Plants without CCS also Better
P485 Monday, 6 April 2009
More Dog-Wagging I
  • Gassco Submits Kårstø CCS Integration Study
  • Full Program Requires Second Power Plant + Capture Facility
  • Means Scrapping Equivalent of Full Power Plant
  • NOK 13 Bn Capex on Top of all CCS Costs
  • Staged Implementation Possible
  • Driven by Need to Justify First Capture Facility
  • Much of the Power Market Problem Remains
  • No New Information about Capture Costs
  • Total Kårstø Capex Could Run into 50 Bn
  • Adding Mongstad and Storage Could Reach 80 bn
  • In the Meantime, Alternative Technologies Emerge
P484 Wednesday, 1 April 2009
Cities for Climate
  • Study Shows Cities Emit Much Less CO2
  • Illustrates General Efficiency Gains
  • Oil, Gas Associated with Urbanization
  • Changing Social Fabric May Have Surprising Results
P483 Friday, 27 March 2009
Wagging the Dog II
  • OK to Have Buyer-Owned Skanled?
  • Some Buyers Are also Sellers
  • What Motivates Buyers?
  • How May Skanled Affect Gas Sales Strategy?
  • Political Deal about Troll Gas?
  • Deadline Extended by One Month
  • Minister: Must Find Solution
  • Have Gassco, Petoro Roles Been Compromised?
P482 Tuesday, 24 March 2009
Wagging the Dog
  • Yara Throws Cards on Skanled Deal
  • Disagreement on Price, Take-or-Pay, Termination, Investment
  • No Grenland Customers Left
  • Skanled Dead or Alive?
  • Minister Calls Rush Meeting
  • Gasunie Enters Project Group
  • Export Pipeline Only?
P481 Wednesday, 18 March 2009
From High to Low North
  • Bondevik II Strategy Now better than Red-Green
  • Clearest Expression of the Desirability of Northern E&P
  • Støre's 2005 Speech Most Offensive Version
  • Some Watering-Out already in 2006
  • Petroleum from High to Low in 2009
  • Barents 2020 Faded into the Background
P480 Tuesday, 17 March 2009
High North Hibernation
  • Petroleum Tuned Down in High North Strategy
  • Only briefly Mentioned at Presentation
  • MPE Minister not even Present
  • Approach More Introvert, Designed for Election
  • A Step Back, but no Doors Closed
  • A Little Better in Foreign Policy Parliament Report
  • Opposition Could Use the Latter to Boost E&P Parts
P479 Monday, 9 March 2009
Stronger Case
  • KonKraft Report #6 on Northern E&P Released
  • Documents Minimal Risk for Fisheries
  • Major Improvements in Oil Spill Contingency
  • Possible Scenario: 2000 Local Jobs
  • Some Areas More Interesting than Others
  • Greens Use Invectives to Hurt Credibility
  • "Social Contract" Could Be Deal-Breaker
  • The Compromise Debate
P478 Thursday, 5 March 2009
Reshaping the CCS Market
  • Full-Scale CCS Projects Should Be Cancelled
  • Test Centre Should Go On
  • Intensified R&D Effort
  • Establish State CO2 Purchase System
P477 Monday, 2 March 2009
CCS Objectives
  • Are We in a Hurry to Capture Carbon from Gas Power?
  • What Is the Social Cost of Emissions?
  • Can Market Failure Justify Higher Unit Costs?
  • What About "Doing More at Home"?
  • CCS Required to Secure Power Supply?
  • Or To Protect Norway's Interests as an Oil & Gas Nation?
  • Is there Truly a Technological Benefit?
P476 Saturday, 28 February 2009
Prelude to Scandal
  • Political Pressure Cause of CCS Predicament
  • Technology Development Process Reversed
  • Moon Landing without Landing Technology
  • Faulty Bellona Report Contributed to Euphoria
  • Warnings from Professionals not Heeded
  • Major Clean-Up Job Waiting for next Government
P475 Friday, 27 February 2009
Hot CCS Potato
  • StatoilHydro Submits Report on Mongstad Capture
  • New Cost Estimate NOK 25 Bn, Huge Uncertainty
  • Kårstø Capture Even More Expensive?
  • Possible Full Revision of Kårstø Plans
  • Mongstad Pilot of Little Value under Political Schedules
  • Unknown Cancer, Health, Environment Risk
  • Could Force Politicians to Postpone Decisions
  • StatoilHydro's Warnings Real CSR
  • Opportunity Should Be Used to Change CCS Approach
P474 Friday, 20 February 2009
Why Did God Create Oil?
  • Church, Clergy, Demand Oil & Gas Moratorium
  • Admit Ignorance about Petroleum Industry
  • Based on Sentiments about "God's Work of Creation"
  • No Factual Foundation Available
  • Echoes Green Faction in Government Foreign Aid Study
  • Strong Reactions from Locals, Trade Unions
  • Campaign to Terminate Church Membership
  • Maybe God Created Oil to Protect His Forests?
P473 Thursday, 19 February 2009
Inaction Again
  • MPE Submits Report on Structural Changes
  • Entire Industry Misses Diversity
  • Fears that Some Suppliers May Be Closed Out
  • Ministry Quotes External Actors Only
  • Establishes "Reference Base"
  • Offers No Policy Options
P472 Friday, 6 February 2009
Labour As Expected
  • Labour Remains Uncommitted to Lofoten/Vesterålen
  • Will “Give Access to Interesting Acreage”
  • Wants to Maintain Value Creation at High Level
  • Ambigous on StatoilHydro Ownership
  • Reaffirms High North Strategy
  • Management Plan for Barents North
  • No Change on Climate Policies, Renewables
  • No Mention of NCS Diversity
P471 Friday, 30 January 2009
Strong APA Support II
  • Industry Wants APA Area Extended
  • Several Other Proposals about APA Improvement
  • Critics Contradict themselves on Foundation for Extensions
  • APA Area Knowledge May Have to Be Verified
  • Fishermen May Be More Flexible than at First Sight
P470 Friday, 30 January 2009
Strong APA Support I
  • APA Review Letters: 42 Yes; 7 No
  • Massive Support from Industry, Suppliers, and Local Governments
  • Opposition as Expected from Environmentalists
  • Fisheries Sector Split between No and Restrictions
  • Green Agency Asks for Restrictions only
  • State Secretary Says MPE's Process Will Take Half a Year
P469 Wednesday, 28 January 2009
Campaign Mode
  • New National Action Group against Lofoten/Vesterålen E&P
  • Outclassed in Membership by new Movement For E&P
  • Local Supporters Outnumber Local Opponents - So Far
  • 8 of 10 Norwegians: E&P Is Good for Northern Norway
  • Conservatives & Progress Party Strongly Committed
  • Liberals Promise Veto in Non-Socialist Coalition
  • Different Versions on Veto from Socialist Left Party
  • NPD: Stepwise Opening Possible; Helge Lund Agrees
  • Aftenposten: Wait or Protect

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